Does Catena’s (OM:CATE) Push for Sustainable Leases Reinforce Its Competitive Edge in Logistics Real Estate?

• ICA Fastigheter AB recently announced it has signed two eight-year lease agreements with Catena for logistics facilities at Logistics Position Ramlosa in Helsingborg, including a newly constructed, BREEAM Excellent-certified building and an existing space to be fitted with refrigeration amenities.
• This deal also sees Nowaste Logistics consolidating operations in the site’s largest facility, reflecting increasing tenant demand and a focus on environmentally certified logistics spaces.
• To understand the effect of these long-term leases and Catena's progress with high-standard, sustainable logistics projects, we’ll review their impact on the investment narrative.

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Catena Investment Narrative Recap

To own Catena stock, you need to believe in resilient tenant demand for high-quality logistics facilities, supported by long-term leases and ongoing development of sustainable projects. The recent eight-year ICA Fastigheter agreements reinforce this investment case by securing occupancy for new and existing space, but they do not materially change the most important short-term catalyst, Catena’s ability to keep vacancy low and rapidly lease its remaining available space in key markets amid regional oversupply risks.

The July 2025 acquisition of a fully leased property in Jonkoping, at a cost of SEK 1,275 million and with a long lease secured, is particularly relevant. It supports Catena’s earnings visibility and risk mitigation by diversifying tenant exposure, especially as competition for prime logistics assets intensifies and market supply concerns persist.

However, investors should not overlook the risk that, despite new lease signings, regional oversupply and vacancies in markets like Malardalen and Jonkoping could ...

Read the full narrative on Catena (it's free!)

Catena's narrative projects SEK 3.3 billion in revenue and SEK 1.5 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires a 10.3% yearly revenue growth and an increase in earnings of SEK 0.1 billion from the current SEK 1.4 billion.

Uncover how Catena's forecasts yield a SEK510.00 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Catena’s fair value between SEK229.20 and SEK510, highlighting sharp differences in outlook. Your view could hinge on whether new leases will offset the pressures from competition and slower leasing in saturated regions.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Catena - why the stock might be worth as much as 15% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Catena Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Catena research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Catena research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Catena's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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