OM:LUPE

Stock Analysis Report

Lundin Petroleum

Executive Summary

Lundin Petroleum AB (publ), an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties primarily in Norway.

Rewards

Trading at 68.2% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 1.78% per year

Earnings grew by 271.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Has a high level of debt

Unstable dividend track record



Snowflake Analysis

Proven track record average dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Lundin Petroleum's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: LUPE has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

3.1%

LUPE

3.1%

SE Oil and Gas

0.4%

SE Market


1 Year Return

0.2%

LUPE

31.6%

SE Oil and Gas

21.6%

SE Market

Return vs Industry: LUPE underperformed the Swedish Oil and Gas industry which returned 33.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LUPE underperformed the Swedish Market which returned 22.2% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

LUPEIndustryMarket
7 Day3.1%3.1%0.4%
30 Day-6.0%-2.9%2.7%
90 Day-0.4%12.1%10.1%
1 Year4.9%0.2%31.7%31.6%26.5%21.6%
3 Year75.8%55.6%42.0%32.1%37.4%16.7%
5 Year177.6%145.7%44.3%11.1%46.5%15.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Lundin Petroleum's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Lundin Petroleum undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: LUPE (SEK303.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK952.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUPE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: LUPE is poor value based on its PE Ratio (11.9x) compared to the Oil and Gas industry average (10.8x).

PE vs Market: LUPE is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.9x) compared to the Swedish market (20.1x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: LUPE is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (6.7x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: LUPE has negative assets, so we can't compare its PB Ratio to the SE Oil and Gas industry average.


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Lundin Petroleum forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 19 analysts?

1.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LUPE's forecast earnings growth (1.8% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: LUPE's earnings (1.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Swedish market (8.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: LUPE's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: LUPE's revenue (13.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (4.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LUPE's revenue (13.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if LUPE's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Lundin Petroleum performed over the past 5 years?

65.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LUPE has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: LUPE's current net profit margins (37.6%) are higher than last year (8.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LUPE has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 65.4% per year.

Accelerating Growth: LUPE's earnings growth over the past year (271.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (65.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: LUPE earnings growth over the past year (271.4%) exceeded the Oil and Gas industry -5.3%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: LUPE's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Lundin Petroleum's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LUPE has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.

Long Term Liabilities: LUPE has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LUPE has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.

Reducing Debt: LUPE's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: LUPE has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: LUPE has negative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets) therefore debt is not covered by short term assets.


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: LUPE is profitable, therefore cash runway is not a concern.

Forecast Cash Runway: LUPE is profitable, therefore cash runway is not a concern.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Lundin Petroleum's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

5.80%

Current Dividend Yield


Upcoming Dividend Payment

Purchase Lundin Petroleum before the 'Buy Limit' to receive their next dividend payment.


Dividend Yield vs Market

company5.8%marketbottom25%1.6%markettop25%4.3%industryaverage6.3%forecastin3Years6.5%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: LUPE's dividend (5.8%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (1.55%).

High Dividend: LUPE's dividend (5.8%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (4.17%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: LUPE has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: LUPE has only been paying a dividend for 9 years, and since then payments have fallen.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (68.9%), LUPE's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: LUPE's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (81.5% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Alex Schneiter (57yo)

4.3yrs

Tenure

US$4,853,000

Compensation

Mr. Alexandre Schneiter, also known as Alex, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Lundin Petroleum AB since October 1, 2015. Mr. Schneiter served as the Chief Operating Officer and Executi ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Alex's total compensation ($USD4.85M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Swedish market ($USD1.89M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Alex's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Alexandre Schneiter
President4.3yrsUS$4.85m0.12% $101.7m
Teitur Poulsen
Chief Financial Officer0yrsno datano data
Nicholas Walker
Chief Operating Officer4.3yrsno datano data
Edward Westropp
Vice President of Investor Relations1.5yrsno datano data
Henrika Frykman
VP of Legal & Corporate Secretary0yrsno datano data
Sean Reddy
Vice President of Human Resources & Shared Services2.1yrsno datano data
Kristin Færøvik
Managing Director - Norway0yrsno datano data
Rozlin Hassan
Head of Petroleum Engineering for Malaysia7.8yrsno datano data
Andrew Holding
Group Financial Controller0yrsno datano data
Erik Jenssen
Chief Operating Officer of Norway8.4yrsno datano data

4.3yrs

Average Tenure

51yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: LUPE's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Alexandre Schneiter
President4.3yrsUS$4.85m0.12% $101.7m
Peggy Bruzelius
Independent Director6.8yrsUS$79.00k0.0028% $2.4m
Cecilia Vieweg
Independent Director6.8yrsUS$79.00k0.0018% $1.5m
Lukas Lundin
Director19.1yrsUS$60.00k0.15% $128.8m
Charles Ashley Heppenstall
Director19.1yrsUS$5.33m0.54% $467.6m
Ian Lundin
Chairman17.8yrsUS$255.00kno data
Grace Skaugen
Independent Director4.8yrsUS$82.00k0.0018% $1.5m
Torstein Sanness
Director1.8yrsUS$36.00k0.033% $28.3m
Jakob Thomasen
Independent Director2.8yrsUS$79.00k0.0031% $2.7m

6.8yrs

Average Tenure

61yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: LUPE's board of directors are considered experienced (6.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: LUPE insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Lundin Petroleum AB (publ)'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Lundin Petroleum AB (publ)
  • Ticker: LUPE
  • Exchange: OM
  • Founded: 2001
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
  • Sector: Energy
  • Market Cap: kr86.096b
  • Shares outstanding: 284.05m
  • Website: https://www.lundin-petroleum.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Lundin Petroleum AB (publ)
  • Hovslagargatan 5
  • Stockholm
  • Stockholm County
  • 111 48
  • Sweden

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
LNDN.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesCommon SharesUSUSDSep 2001
LUPEOM (OMX Nordic Exchange Stockholm)YesCommon SharesSESEKSep 2001
LYVDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEURSep 2001
0NNRLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesGBSEKSep 2001
LUPESBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesCommon SharesGBSEKSep 2001
LUPE.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)SPONSORED ADRUSUSDJan 2009

Biography

Lundin Petroleum AB (publ), an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties primarily in Norway. As of December 31, 2018, it had proved plus probable reserves of 745.4 million barrels of oil equivalent. Lundin Petroleum AB (publ) was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/18 20:50
End of Day Share Price2020/02/18 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.