OM:AXFO

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses in Sweden.

Rewards

Trading at 6.2% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 0.15% per year

Earnings grew by 5.3% over the past year

Pays a reliable dividend of 3.38%

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 3.38% is not well covered by earnings



Snowflake Analysis

Solid track record with excellent balance sheet and pays a dividend.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Axfood's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: AXFO has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-0.8%

AXFO

0.2%

SE Consumer Retailing

-0.6%

SE Market


1 Year Return

29.7%

AXFO

0.6%

SE Consumer Retailing

23.8%

SE Market

Return vs Industry: AXFO exceeded the Swedish Consumer Retailing industry which returned 4.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AXFO exceeded the Swedish Market which returned 23.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

AXFOIndustryMarket
7 Day-0.8%0.2%-0.6%
30 Day-3.9%-1.2%1.8%
90 Day-1.5%0.5%6.9%
1 Year35.1%29.7%4.6%0.6%28.9%23.8%
3 Year61.3%41.5%2.7%-7.5%38.9%17.6%
5 Year102.1%61.0%14.5%-3.2%53.2%20.2%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Axfood's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Axfood undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

4.9%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AXFO (SEK207.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK221.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AXFO is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AXFO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (26.8x) compared to the Consumer Retailing industry average (19.2x).

PE vs Market: AXFO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (26.8x) compared to the Swedish market (19.4x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AXFO is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (176.9x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AXFO is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (11.7x) compared to the XE Consumer Retailing industry average (1.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Axfood forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

0.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AXFO's forecast earnings growth (0.1% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: AXFO's earnings (0.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Swedish market (10.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AXFO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AXFO's revenue (3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Swedish market (4.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AXFO's revenue (3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AXFO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (36.9%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Axfood performed over the past 5 years?

6.5%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AXFO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AXFO's current net profit margins (3.2%) are higher than last year (3.2%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AXFO's earnings have grown by 6.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AXFO's earnings growth over the past year (5.3%) is below its 5-year average (6.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: AXFO earnings growth over the past year (5.3%) exceeded the Consumer Retailing industry 0.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: AXFO's Return on Equity (42.1%) is considered outstanding.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Axfood's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AXFO's short term assets (SEK5.5B) do not cover its short term liabilities (SEK7.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: AXFO's short term assets (SEK5.5B) exceed its long term liabilities (SEK5.4B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AXFO's debt to equity ratio (10.9%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: AXFO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 12.7% to 10.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AXFO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (769.9%).

Interest Coverage: AXFO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (26.9x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: AXFO has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: AXFO's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 12.8x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Axfood's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

3.46%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company3.5%marketbottom25%1.6%markettop25%4.4%industryaverage3.5%forecastin3Years3.5%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: AXFO's dividend (3.38%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (1.57%).

High Dividend: AXFO's dividend (3.38%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (4.45%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AXFO's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AXFO's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (90.6%), AXFO's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: AXFO's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (85.9% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Axfood's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

2.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Klas Balkow (54yo)

2.8yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. Klas Balkow has been Chief Executive Officer and President at Axfood AB since March 2017. Mr. Balkow served as Advisor of Clas Ohlson AB (publ) until March 16, 2017. Mr. Balkow served as the Chief Exec ...


Management Age and Tenure

2.2yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: AXFO's management team is considered experienced (2.2 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

3.8yrs

Average Tenure

52yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: AXFO's board of directors are considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Sellkr239,70017 Jul 19
Stina Andersson
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Director
Shares1,200
Max Pricekr199.75
Buykr150,45013 May 19
Carl Stenbeck
EntityIndividual
Shares850
Max Pricekr177.00
Buykr148,75009 May 19
Sara Westrell
EntityIndividual
Role
Head of Corporate Communications
Head of Corporate Communications
Shares850
Max Pricekr175.00
Buykr174,65007 May 19
Anders Lexmon
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
Chief Financial Officer
Shares1,000
Max Pricekr174.65
Buykr147,18606 May 19
Eva Pettersson
EntityIndividual
Shares850
Max Pricekr173.16

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Åsa Domeij (57yo)

    Head of Environment & Social Responsibility

    • Lars-Åke Johansson

      Head of Structure & Establishment

      • Bengt Andersson

        Head of Retail Trade Development

        • Sara Westrell (45yo)

          Head of Corporate Communications

          • Tenure: 2yrs
        • Klas Balkow (54yo)

          President & CEO

          • Tenure: 2.8yrs
        • Jan Lindmark (60yo)

          Head of Information Technology

          • Anders Lexmon (51yo)

            Chief Financial Officer

            • Tenure: 2.4yrs
          • Monica Längbo (56yo)

            Head of Human Resources

            • Tenure: 0.9yrs
          • Sandra Brånstad

            General Counsel & Company secretary

            • Elisabet Johansson

              Interim Head of Investor Relations


              Board Members

              • Lars Olofsson (68yo)

                Vice Chairman

                • Tenure: 6yrs
                • Compensation: kr515.00k
              • Mia Livfors (54yo)

                Chairman of the Board

                • Tenure: 3.8yrs
                • Compensation: kr675.00k
              • Christer Åberg (53yo)

                Director

                • Tenure: 3yrs
                • Compensation: kr421.00k
              • Caroline Berg (51yo)

                Non-Independent Director

                • Tenure: 6yrs
                • Compensation: kr421.00k
              • Jesper Lien (50yo)

                Director

                • Tenure: 1.8yrs
                • Compensation: kr319.00k
              • Lars Östberg (51yo)

                Employee Representative Director

                • Tenure: 3.8yrs
              • Michael Sjörén (59yo)

                Employee Representative Director

                • Tenure: 9.3yrs
              • Stina Andersson (36yo)

                Director

                • Tenure: 1.8yrs
                • Compensation: kr319.00k
              • Fabian Bengtsson (47yo)

                Independent Director

                • Tenure: 3.8yrs
                • Compensation: kr421.00k
              • Anders Helsing (53yo)

                Employee Representative Director

                • Tenure: 3.8yrs

              Company Information

              Axfood AB (publ)'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


              Key Information

              • Name: Axfood AB (publ)
              • Ticker: AXFO
              • Exchange: OM
              • Founded: 2000
              • Industry: Food Retail
              • Sector: Consumer Retailing
              • Market Cap: kr42.341b
              • Shares outstanding: 209.30m
              • Website: https://www.axfood.se

              Number of Employees


              Location

              • Axfood AB (publ)
              • Norra stationsgatan 80 C
              • Stockholm
              • 107 69
              • Sweden

              Listings

              TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
              AXFOOM (OMX Nordic Exchange Stockholm)YesShare CapitalSESEKFeb 2000
              AXFO.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesShare CapitalUSUSDFeb 2000
              0R6RLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesShare CapitalGBSEKFeb 2000
              AXFOSBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesShare CapitalGBSEKFeb 2000
              AXL1DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesShare CapitalDEEURFeb 2000
              AXFO.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)ADRUSUSDDec 2008

              Biography

              Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses in Sweden. It operates through Willys, Hemköp, Dagab, and Axfood Snabbgross segments. The company operates its retail business through Willys, Hemköp, and Eurocash chains; and the online store Mat.se. Axfood AB (publ) is also involved in the e-commerce business; and provision of private label products. It serves restaurants, foodservice operators, and cafés; and retailer-owned stores, mini-marts, service stations, and other convenience retailers. The company operates 187 Hemköp stores; and 200 stores, which include 49 Willys Hemma stores and 151 Willys stores. It also operates cold storage warehouses; distribution centers; and 24 Snabbgross stores. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden. Axfood AB (publ) is a subsidiary of Axel Johnson AB. 


              Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

              All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
              DataLast Updated (UTC time)
              Company Analysis2020/01/25 21:02
              End of Day Share Price2020/01/24 00:00
              Earnings2019/09/30
              Annual Earnings2018/12/31


              Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.