Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Transfer Group AB (publ) (NGM:TRNSF) Shares Dive 45%

Transfer Group AB (publ) (NGM:TRNSF) shares have retraced a considerable 45% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 18% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Transfer Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Commercial Services industry in Sweden, seeing as it matches the P/S ratio of the wider industry. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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See our latest analysis for Transfer Group

What Does Transfer Group's Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Transfer Group's financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as revenue growth is non-existent. Perhaps the market believes the recent run-of-the-mill revenue performance isn't enough to outperform the industry, which has kept the P/S muted. Those who are bullish on Transfer Group will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Transfer Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is Transfer Group's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Transfer Group's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 46% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 6.1% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Transfer Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Transfer Group's P/S Mean For Investors?

Following Transfer Group's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We find it unexpected that Transfer Group trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Transfer Group, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.