CTT Systems AB (publ)'s (STO:CTT) Has Been On A Rise But Financial Prospects Look Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 11, 2021
OM:CTT
Source: Shutterstock

CTT Systems' (STO:CTT) stock is up by a considerable 10% over the past week. However, we decided to pay close attention to its weak financials as we are doubtful that the current momentum will keep up, given the scenario. In this article, we decided to focus on CTT Systems' ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for CTT Systems

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for CTT Systems is:

5.7% = kr12m ÷ kr209m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2021).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every SEK1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated SEK0.06 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

CTT Systems' Earnings Growth And 5.7% ROE

When you first look at it, CTT Systems' ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 10% either. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 2.7% seen by CTT Systems was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

From the 2.7% decline reported by the industry in the same period, we infer that CTT Systems and its industry are both shrinking at a similar rate.

past-earnings-growth
OM:CTT Past Earnings Growth November 12th 2021

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is CTT fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is CTT Systems Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

CTT Systems' declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 70% (or a retention ratio of 30%). With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. Our risks dashboard should have the 2 risks we have identified for CTT Systems.

In addition, CTT Systems has been paying dividends over a period of seven years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is preferred by the management even though earnings have been in decline. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 74%. Regardless, the future ROE for CTT Systems is predicted to rise to 34% despite there being not much change expected in its payout ratio.

Summary

In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning CTT Systems. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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