Thob Al Aseel (TADAWUL:4012) jumps 11% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind three-year shareholder returns

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 13, 2022
SASE:4012
Source: Shutterstock

Thob Al Aseel Co. (TADAWUL:4012) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 18% in the last quarter. But that doesn't undermine the rather lovely longer-term return, if you measure over the last three years. Indeed, the share price is up a very strong 206% in that time. So the recent fall in the share price should be viewed in that context. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

View our latest analysis for Thob Al Aseel

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, Thob Al Aseel achieved compound earnings per share growth of 1.2% per year. In comparison, the 45% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This suggests that, as the business progressed over the last few years, it gained the confidence of market participants. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
SASE:4012 Earnings Per Share Growth January 13th 2022

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Thob Al Aseel's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Thob Al Aseel's TSR for the last 3 years was 236%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Over the last year, Thob Al Aseel shareholders took a loss of 19%, including dividends. In contrast the market gained about 12%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. Investors are up over three years, booking 50% per year, much better than the more recent returns. Sometimes when a good quality long term winner has a weak period, it's turns out to be an opportunity, but you really need to be sure that the quality is there. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Thob Al Aseel (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SA exchanges.

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