Here's Why We're Wary Of Buying Thob Al Aseel's (TADAWUL:4012) For Its Upcoming Dividend

Thob Al Aseel Co. (TADAWUL:4012) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next 4 days. The ex-dividend date occurs one day before the record date which is the day on which shareholders need to be on the company's books in order to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important because any transaction on a stock needs to have been settled before the record date in order to be eligible for a dividend. In other words, investors can purchase Thob Al Aseel's shares before the 20th of September in order to be eligible for the dividend, which will be paid on the 1st of January.

The company's upcoming dividend is ر.س0.75 a share, following on from the last 12 months, when the company distributed a total of ر.س2.00 per share to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Thob Al Aseel has a trailing yield of 2.5% on the current stock price of SAR91.1. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. As a result, readers should always check whether Thob Al Aseel has been able to grow its dividends, or if the dividend might be cut.

See our latest analysis for Thob Al Aseel

If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. Last year Thob Al Aseel paid out 98% of its profits as dividends to shareholders, suggesting the dividend is not well covered by earnings. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. Luckily it paid out just 23% of its free cash flow last year.

It's good to see that while Thob Al Aseel's dividends were not well covered by profits, at least they are affordable from a cash perspective. Still, if this were to happen repeatedly, we'd be concerned about whether the dividend is sustainable in a downturn.

Click here to see how much of its profit Thob Al Aseel paid out over the last 12 months.

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. Thob Al Aseel's earnings per share have fallen at approximately 25% a year over the previous five years. Such a sharp decline casts doubt on the future sustainability of the dividend.

The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. In the last four years, Thob Al Aseel has lifted its dividend by approximately 3.0% a year on average. That's intriguing, but the combination of growing dividends despite declining earnings can typically only be achieved by paying out a larger percentage of profits. Thob Al Aseel is already paying out a high percentage of its income, so without earnings growth, we're doubtful of whether this dividend will grow much in the future.

Final Takeaway

From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Thob Al Aseel? It's never great to see earnings per share declining, especially when a company is paying out 98% of its profit as dividends, which we feel is uncomfortably high. Yet cashflow was much stronger, which makes us wonder if there are some large timing issues in Thob Al Aseel's cash flows, or perhaps the company has written down some assets aggressively, reducing its income. It's not the most attractive proposition from a dividend perspective, and we'd probably give this one a miss for now.

So if you're still interested in Thob Al Aseel despite it's poor dividend qualities, you should be well informed on some of the risks facing this stock. For example, Thob Al Aseel has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

A common investment mistake is buying the first interesting stock you see. Here you can find a list of promising dividend stocks with a greater than 2% yield and an upcoming dividend.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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