Nizhnekamskneftekhim (MCX:NKNC) shareholders have earned a 37% CAGR over the last three years

Published
February 08, 2022
MISX:NKNC
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While Public Joint Stock Company Nizhnekamskneftekhim (MCX:NKNC) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 16% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been respectable. In that time the stock gained 70%, besting the market return of 68%.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

View our latest analysis for Nizhnekamskneftekhim

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, Nizhnekamskneftekhim achieved compound earnings per share growth of 13% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 19% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
MISX:NKNC Earnings Per Share Growth February 8th 2022

Dive deeper into Nizhnekamskneftekhim's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Nizhnekamskneftekhim's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Nizhnekamskneftekhim, it has a TSR of 160% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Nizhnekamskneftekhim shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 34% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 18%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Nizhnekamskneftekhim (2 are a bit concerning) that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on RU exchanges.

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