Can Avangard Joint Stock BANK (MCX:AVAN) Survive The Next Financial Crisis?

Avangard Joint Stock BANK’s (MISX:AVAN) profitability and risk are largely affected by the underlying economic growth for the region it operates in RU given it is a small-cap stock with a market capitalisation of RUРУБ37.12B. A bank’s cash flow is directly impacted by economic growth as it is the main driver of deposit levels and demand for loans which it profits from. Following the Financial Crisis in 2008, a set of reforms termed Basel III was enforced to bolster risk management, regulation, and supervision in the financial services industry. Basel III target banking regulations to improve the sector’s ability to absorb shocks resulting from economic stress which may expose financial institutions like Avangard BANK to vulnerabilities. Its financial position may weaken in an adverse macro event such as political instability which is why it is crucial to understand how well the bank manages its risks. High liquidity and low leverage could position Avangard BANK favourably at the face of macro headwinds. A way to measure this risk is to look at three leverage and liquidity metrics which I will take you through today. See our latest analysis for Avangard BANK

MISX:AVAN Historical Debt Apr 10th 18
MISX:AVAN Historical Debt Apr 10th 18

Why Does AVAN’s Leverage Matter?

Banks with low leverage are better positioned to weather adverse headwinds as they have less debt to pay off. A bank’s leverage may be thought of as the level of assets it owns compared to its own shareholders’ equity. Financial institutions are required to have a certain level of buffer to meet capital adequacy levels. Avangard BANK’s leverage level of less than the suitable maximum level of 20x, at 5x, is considered to be very cautious and prudent. This means the bank exhibits very strong leverage management and is well-positioned to repay its debtors in the case of any adverse events since it has an appropriately high level of equity relative to the debt it has taken on to remain in business. Should the bank need to increase its debt levels to meet capital requirements, it will have abundant headroom to do so.

How Should We Measure AVAN’s Liquidity?

Handing Money Transparent Since loans are relatively illiquid, we should know how much of the bank’s total assets are comprised of these loans. Generally, they should make up less than 70% of total assets, which is consistent with Avangard BANK’s state given its much lower ratio of 38.36%. This means less than half of the bank’s total assets are tied up in the form of illiquid loans, leading to high liquidity, perhaps at the expense of generating interest income.

Does AVAN Have Liquidity Mismatch?

AVAN profits by lending out its customers’ deposits as loans and charge an interest on the principle. Loans are generally fixed term which means they cannot be readily realized, conversely, on the liability side, customer deposits must be paid in very short notice and on-demand. The disparity between the immediacy of deposits compared to the illiquid nature of loans puts pressure on the bank’s financial position if an adverse event requires the bank to repay its depositors. Relative to the prudent industry loan to deposit level of 90%, Avangard BANK’s ratio of over 52.28% is markedly lower, which means the bank is lending out less than its total level of deposits and positions the bank cautiously in terms of liquidity as it has not disproportionately lent out its deposits and has retained an apt level of deposits. There is opportunity for the bank to increase its interest income by lending out more loans.

Next Steps:

Avangard BANK meets all of our liquidity and leverage criteria, exhibiting operational prudency. The operational risk side of a bank is an important fundamental often overlooked by investors. The bank’s favourable liquidity and leverage position exposes it to less risk when it comes to repaying financial obligations, in particular, in the case of an adverse macro event. Today, we’ve only explored one aspect of Avangard BANK. However, as a potential stock investment, there are many more fundamentals you need to consider. There are three important aspects you should look at:

  1. Valuation: What is AVAN worth today? Has the future growth potential already been factored into the price? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether AVAN is currently mispriced by the market.
  2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Avangard BANK’s board and the CEO’s back ground.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.