WSE:AML

Stock Analysis Report

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Executive Summary

Alumetal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells secondary aluminum casting alloys for the automotive market sector in Poland, Germany, and other European countries.

Rewards

Trading at 18.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 20.29% per year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for AML from our risk checks.


Snowflake Analysis

Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.

Share Price & News

How has Alumetal's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: AML has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.3%

AML

5.6%

PL Metals and Mining

0.6%

PL Market


1 Year Return

4.9%

AML

-3.0%

PL Metals and Mining

-16.0%

PL Market

Return vs Industry: AML exceeded the Polish Metals and Mining industry which returned -3.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AML exceeded the Polish Market which returned -16.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

AMLIndustryMarket
7 Day1.3%5.6%0.6%
30 Day-2.8%10.9%-0.3%
90 Day6.3%39.6%16.7%
1 Year4.9%4.9%-1.2%-3.0%-14.6%-16.0%
3 Year-22.2%-33.7%-28.2%-30.7%-19.1%-24.0%
5 Year-14.1%-33.4%3.3%-2.6%-10.9%-20.9%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Alumetal's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Alumetal undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

18.6%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AML (PLN38.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN47.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AML is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AML is poor value based on its PE Ratio (12.7x) compared to the PL Metals and Mining industry average (7.9x).

PE vs Market: AML is good value based on its PE Ratio (12.7x) compared to the Polish market (13x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AML is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.6x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AML is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the PL Metals and Mining industry average (0.8x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Alumetal forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

20.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AML's forecast earnings growth (20.3% per year) is above the savings rate (2.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AML's earnings (20.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Polish market (12.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AML's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Polish market (3.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AML's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AML's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Alumetal performed over the past 5 years?

-6.3%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AML has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AML's current net profit margins (3.6%) are lower than last year (3.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AML's earnings have declined by -6.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AML's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AML had negative earnings growth (-26%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (-9.4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: AML's Return on Equity (8.9%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Alumetal's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AML's short term assets (PLN507.7M) exceed its short term liabilities (PLN309.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: AML's short term assets (PLN507.7M) exceed its long term liabilities (PLN40.0M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AML's debt to equity ratio (26%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: AML's debt to equity ratio has increased from 22% to 26% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AML's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (97.5%).

Interest Coverage: AML's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (16.7x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Alumetal current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.50%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate AML's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate AML's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AML's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AML's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: AML is not paying a notable dividend for the Polish market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of AML's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Polish market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.5yrs

Average board tenure


CEO

Agnieszka Drzyzdzyk

1.25yrs

Tenure

zł649,376

Compensation

Ms. Agnieszka Drzyzdzyk serves as President of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer of Alumetal S.A. since April 2019 and is its Member of Management Board since October 18, 2017. Ms. Drzyzdzyk ...


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Grzegorz Stulgis
Chairman of Supervisory Board12.5yrsno datano data
Michal Wnorowski
Independent Member of Supervisory Board2.5yrszł54.52kno data
Szymon Adamczyk
Member of Supervisory Board2.5yrszł36.00k1.8% PLN10.8m
Bijlhouwer Franciscus
Independent Member of Supervisory Board11.5yrszł36.00kno data
Pawel Malyska
Independent Member of Supervisory Board2.5yrszł63.79kno data

2.5yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Board: AML's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.5 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Alumetal S.A.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Alumetal S.A.
  • Ticker: AML
  • Exchange: WSE
  • Founded: 1953
  • Industry: Aluminum
  • Sector: Materials
  • Market Cap: zł597.508m
  • Shares outstanding: 15.48m
  • Website: https://www.alumetal.pl

Number of Employees


Location

  • Alumetal S.A.
  • ul. Kosciuszki 111
  • Kety
  • 32-650
  • Poland

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
AMLWSE (Warsaw Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesPLPLNJul 2014
0QWLLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBPLNJul 2014

Biography

Alumetal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells secondary aluminum casting alloys for the automotive market sector in Poland, Germany, and other European countries. It offers aluminum casting alloys in the form of one-notch ingots, two-notch ingots, and waffle plates, as well as liquid metal; fluxes and salts; and by-products, including metal wastes. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Kety, Poland. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/07/10 20:49
End of Day Share Price2020/07/10 00:00
Earnings2020/03/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.