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Orbis S.A. owns, operates, manages, and franchises hotels in Poland and internationally. The last earnings update was 2 days ago. More info.
7 Day | 30 Day | 90 Day | 1 Year | 3 Year | 5 Year | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orbis (ORB) | 1.1% | -0.4% | 29.7% | -7% | 56% | 121.6% |
PL Hospitality | 0.5% | 3.7% | 11.6% | -10.4% | 90.5% | 205.9% |
PL Market | 0.7% | -0.2% | 6.3% | -5.7% | 19% | -6.6% |
Is Orbis undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Orbis.
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Valuation Model | 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity | |
Levered Free Cash Flow | Average of 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See below |
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) | See below | 8.6% |
Perpetual Growth Rate | 10-Year PL Government Bond Rate | 2.9% |
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Data Point | Calculation/ Source | Result |
---|---|---|
Risk-Free Rate | 10-Year PL Govt Bond Rate | 2.9% |
Equity Risk Premium | S&P Global | 7.2% |
Hospitality Unlevered Beta | Simply Wall St/ S&P Global | 0.56 |
Re-levered Beta | = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.559 (1 + (1- 19%) (11.54%)) |
0.611 |
Levered Beta | Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm) |
0.8 |
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity |
= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.85% + (0.8 * 7.15%) |
8.57% |
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for WSE:ORB using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Orbis is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Levered FCF (PLN, Millions) | 178.90 | 243.70 | 283.31 | 329.36 | 382.06 |
Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 16.25% | Est @ 16.25% | Est @ 16%, capped from 16.25% |
Present Value Discounted (@ 8.57%) |
164.78 | 206.75 | 221.38 | 237.05 | 253.27 |
Present value of next 5 years cash flows | PLN1,083.22 |
Calculation | Result | |
---|---|---|
Terminal Value |
= FCF2023
× (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= PLN382.06 × (1 + 2.85%) ÷ (8.57% – 2.85%) |
PLN6,869.70 |
Present Value of Terminal Value |
= Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)5
= PLN6,869.70 ÷ (1 + 8.57%)5 |
PLN4,553.95 |
Calculation | Result | |
---|---|---|
Total Equity Value |
= Present value of next 5 years cash flows +
Terminal Value
= PLN1,083.22 + PLN4,553.95 |
PLN5,637.17 |
Equity Value per Share (PLN) |
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= PLN5,637.17 / 46.08 |
PLN122.34 |
Calculation | Result | |
---|---|---|
Value per share (PLN) | From above. | PLN122.34 |
Current discount | Discount to share price of
PLN94.40
= -1 x (PLN94.40 - PLN122.34) / PLN122.34 |
22.8% |
Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Earnings Per Share * | Company Filings (2018-12-31) in PLN | PLN7.88 |
WSE:ORB Share Price ** | WSE (2019-02-22) in PLN | PLN94.4 |
Poland Hospitality Industry PE Ratio | Median Figure of 6 Publicly-Listed Hospitality Companies | 13.2x |
Poland Market PE Ratio | Median Figure of 464 Publicly-Listed Companies | 10.71x |
* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.
** Primary Listing of Orbis.
Calculation | Outcome | |
---|---|---|
PE Ratio | = WSE:ORB Share Price ÷ EPS (both in PLN) = 94.4 ÷ 7.88 |
11.98x |
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
PE Ratio | See PE Ratio Section | 11.98x |
Net Income Annual Growth Rate | See Future Growth Section. Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 1 Analysts |
-17.9%per year |
Europe Hospitality Industry PEG Ratio | Median Figure of 72 Publicly-Listed Hospitality Companies | 1.44x |
Poland Market PEG Ratio | Median Figure of 101 Publicly-Listed Companies | 1.16x |
*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .
Calculation | Outcome | |
---|---|---|
PEG Ratio | = PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate = 11.98x ÷ -17.9% |
-0.67x |
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Book Value per Share | Company Filings (2018-12-31) in PLN | PLN51.71 |
WSE:ORB Share Price * | WSE (2019-02-22) in PLN | PLN94.4 |
Poland Hospitality Industry PB Ratio | Median Figure of 8 Publicly-Listed Hospitality Companies | 2.24x |
Poland Market PB Ratio | Median Figure of 689 Publicly-Listed Companies | 1.01x |
Calculation | Outcome | |
---|---|---|
PB Ratio | = WSE:ORB Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in PLN) = 94.4 ÷ 51.71 |
1.83x |
* Primary Listing of Orbis.
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
How is Orbis expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?
Data Point | Source | Value (per year) |
---|---|---|
WSE:ORB Future Earnings Growth Rate | Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 1 Analysts | -17.9% |
WSE:ORB Future Revenue Growth Rate | Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 1 Analysts | 5.1% |
Poland Hospitality Industry Earnings Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 17.2% |
Europe Hospitality Industry Revenue Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 6.6% |
Poland Market Earnings Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 10% |
Poland Market Revenue Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 6.7% |
*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .
Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.
Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Past Financials | Company Filings (1 month ago) | See Below |
Future Estimates | Average of up to 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See Below |
Date (Data in PLN Millions) | Revenue | Cash Flow | Net Income * | Avg. No. Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-12-31 | 1,597 | 460 | 260 | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 1,539 | 437 | 242 | 1 |
Date (Data in PLN Millions) | Revenue | Cash Flow | Net Income * |
---|---|---|---|
2018-12-31 | 1,440 | 394 | 363 |
2018-09-30 | 1,439 | 379 | 343 |
2018-06-30 | 1,469 | 393 | 365 |
2018-03-31 | 1,464 | 379 | 239 |
2017-12-31 | 1,458 | 390 | 232 |
2017-09-30 | 1,448 | 400 | 244 |
2017-06-30 | 1,423 | 392 | 218 |
2017-03-31 | 1,402 | 399 | 209 |
2016-12-31 | 1,383 | 381 | 207 |
2016-09-30 | 1,344 | 331 | 204 |
2016-06-30 | 1,311 | 326 | 200 |
2016-03-31 | 1,281 | 297 | 190 |
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Past Financials | Company Filings (1 month ago) | See Below |
Future Estimates | Average of up to 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See Below |
All data from Orbis Company Filings, last reported 1 month ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
Date (Data in PLN Millions) | EPS * | EPS High Estimate | EPS Low Estimate | Avg. No. Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-12-31 | ||||
2019-12-31 |
Date (Data in PLN Millions) | EPS * |
---|---|
2018-12-31 | 7.88 |
2018-09-30 | 7.44 |
2018-06-30 | 7.91 |
2018-03-31 | 5.27 |
2017-12-31 | 5.04 |
2017-09-30 | 5.28 |
2017-06-30 | 4.74 |
2017-03-31 | 4.54 |
2016-12-31 | 4.50 |
2016-09-30 | 4.43 |
2016-06-30 | 4.33 |
2016-03-31 | 4.14 |
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
How has Orbis performed over the past 5 years?
All data from Orbis Company Filings, last reported 1 month ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
Date (Data in PLN Millions) | Revenue | Net Income * | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
---|---|---|---|---|
2018-12-31 | 1,440.03 | 363.20 | 369.72 | |
2018-09-30 | 1,438.62 | 342.78 | 370.79 | |
2018-06-30 | 1,468.86 | 365.03 | 377.33 | |
2018-03-31 | 1,463.59 | 239.16 | 378.12 | |
2017-12-31 | 1,458.07 | 232.39 | 380.10 | |
2017-09-30 | 1,448.09 | 243.85 | 389.39 | |
2017-06-30 | 1,422.54 | 218.01 | 393.24 | |
2017-03-31 | 1,401.62 | 209.41 | 396.30 | |
2016-12-31 | 1,382.88 | 207.13 | 396.51 | |
2016-09-30 | 1,344.45 | 203.90 | 386.84 | |
2016-06-30 | 1,310.97 | 199.65 | 377.69 | |
2016-03-31 | 1,280.74 | 190.43 | 370.05 | |
2015-12-31 | 1,262.73 | 181.55 | 364.97 | |
2015-09-30 | 1,131.37 | 152.10 | 313.17 | |
2015-06-30 | 972.63 | 116.19 | 260.24 | |
2015-03-31 | 808.49 | 76.84 | 206.55 | |
2014-12-31 | 707.79 | 89.20 | 161.52 | |
2014-09-30 | 700.11 | 78.45 | 148.30 | |
2014-06-30 | 692.50 | 70.69 | 133.52 | |
2014-03-31 | 686.33 | 62.08 | 120.09 | |
2013-12-31 | 682.60 | 66.65 | 115.95 | |
2013-09-30 | 669.74 | 55.57 | 116.47 | |
2013-06-30 | 665.53 | 52.32 | 117.94 | |
2013-03-31 | 694.97 | 70.80 | 122.17 | |
2012-12-31 | 707.39 | 68.73 | 121.23 | |
2012-09-30 | 715.44 | 83.26 | 121.50 | |
2012-06-30 | 715.90 | 133.53 | 121.68 | |
2012-03-31 | 680.71 | 120.19 | 114.90 |
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
How is Orbis's financial health and their level of debt?
All data from Orbis Company Filings, last reported 1 month ago.
Date (Data in PLN Millions) | Total Equity | Total Debt | Cash & Short Term Investments |
---|---|---|---|
2018-12-31 | 2,386.79 | 502.11 | 537.83 |
2018-09-30 | 2,314.98 | 502.66 | 497.16 |
2018-06-30 | 2,237.03 | 501.89 | 582.02 |
2018-03-31 | 2,079.82 | 559.24 | 192.71 |
2017-12-31 | 2,080.88 | 542.73 | 214.84 |
2017-09-30 | 2,054.86 | 629.91 | 241.70 |
2017-06-30 | 1,938.47 | 661.47 | 242.62 |
2017-03-31 | 1,914.18 | 625.34 | 248.50 |
2016-12-31 | 1,950.68 | 624.44 | 540.79 |
2016-09-30 | 1,886.22 | 642.94 | 446.60 |
2016-06-30 | 1,810.78 | 440.60 | 236.36 |
2016-03-31 | 1,784.12 | 464.80 | 159.69 |
2015-12-31 | 1,783.29 | 459.14 | 271.68 |
2015-09-30 | 1,729.56 | 476.47 | 270.07 |
2015-06-30 | 1,649.76 | 475.44 | 231.29 |
2015-03-31 | 1,642.84 | 474.71 | 119.06 |
2014-12-31 | 1,952.32 | 0.00 | 239.50 |
2014-09-30 | 1,929.19 | 0.00 | 202.46 |
2014-06-30 | 1,889.29 | 0.00 | 227.58 |
2014-03-31 | 1,922.18 | 0.00 | 175.45 |
2013-12-31 | 1,932.10 | 0.00 | 190.84 |
2013-09-30 | 1,920.19 | 0.00 | 159.53 |
2013-06-30 | 1,888.19 | 0.00 | 196.03 |
2013-03-31 | 1,926.10 | 0.00 | 121.39 |
2012-12-31 | 1,932.04 | 0.00 | 139.43 |
2012-09-30 | 1,930.94 | 0.00 | 176.48 |
2012-06-30 | 1,902.03 | 0.00 | 210.14 |
2012-03-31 | 1,920.76 | 7.79 | 159.21 |
What is Orbis's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Data Point | Source | Value |
---|---|---|
Past Annualized Dividend Yield | S&P Global Market Data | See Below |
Past Dividends per Share | Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments | See Below |
Future Dividends per Share Estimates | Average of up to 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See Below |
Europe Hospitality Industry Average Dividend Yield | Market Cap Weighted Average of 86 Stocks | 3.4% |
Poland Market Average Dividend Yield | Market Cap Weighted Average of 209 Stocks | 3.3% |
Poland Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield | 10th Percentile | 1.4% |
Poland Bottom 25% Dividend Yield | 25th Percentile | 2.6% |
Poland Top 25% Dividend Yield | 75th Percentile | 7.8% |
Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.
Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.
Date (Data in PLN) | Dividend per Share (annual) | Avg. No. Analysts |
---|---|---|
2020-12-31 | 2.19 | 2.00 |
2019-12-31 | 2.13 | 2.00 |
Date (Data in PLN) | Dividend per share (annual) | Avg. Yield (%) |
---|---|---|
2018-04-27 | 1.600 | 1.830 |
2017-04-27 | 1.600 | 1.778 |
2017-04-06 | 1.600 | 1.935 |
2016-04-28 | 1.500 | 2.186 |
2016-02-18 | 1.500 | 2.456 |
2015-05-14 | 1.500 | 2.547 |
2015-02-18 | 1.500 | 3.008 |
2014-11-14 | 1.500 | 3.616 |
2014-08-26 | 1.500 | 3.733 |
2014-02-20 | 1.500 | 3.585 |
2013-02-20 | 1.400 | 3.788 |
2013-01-15 | 1.400 | 3.691 |
2012-04-27 | 1.400 | 3.723 |
2012-02-21 | 1.400 | 3.216 |
2010-02-24 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
2009-11-12 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
2009-08-27 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
2009-05-14 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
2009-02-24 | 0.400 | 1.293 |
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
Mr. Gilles Stephane Clavie has been the President of the Management Board at Orbis Spólka Akcyjna since June 26, 2014 and has been its Chief Executive Officer since June 27, 2014. Mr. Clavie joined Orbis S.A. as a member of the Executive Committee of Orbis Spólka Akcyjna in January 2011. He is responsible for strategy, management control, IT and asset management. Mr. Clavie also created and is heading a Property Management Committee which concentrated on in-depth analysis of various investment projects as regards development, asset management, construction and maintenance. He began his professional career as a Consolidation and Group Financial Reporting Manager in Eridania Beghin-Say in 1993. He joined Accor Group in Paris in 2001 as Reporting Director for the business and leisure hotels segment. He served as Financial Controller of Accor from 2004 to 2010.
Average tenure and age of the Orbis management team in years:
Average tenure and age of the Orbis board of directors in years:
Today I will examine Orbis S.A.'s (WSE:ORB) latest earnings update (30 September 2018) and compare these figures against its performance over the past couple of years, in addition to how the rest of ORB's industry performed. … Commentary On ORB's Past Performance. … ORB's trailing twelve-month earnings (from 30 September 2018) of zł343m has
Simply Wall St - – Full articleHow far off is Orbis Spólka Akcyjna (WSE:ORB) from its intrinsic value? … by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. … Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model
Simply Wall St - – Full articleWith that in mind, this article will work through how we can use Return On Equity (ROE) to better understand a business. … To keep the lesson grounded in practicality, we'll use ROE to better understand Orbis Spólka Akcyjna (WSE:ORB). … Our data shows Orbis Spólka Akcyjna has a return on equity of 15% for the last year.
Simply Wall St - – Full articleHistorically, Orbis Spólka Akcyjna (WSE:ORB) has been paying a dividend to shareholders. … Let's take a look at Orbis Spólka Akcyjna in more detail. … View our latest analysis for Orbis Spólka Akcyjna
Simply Wall St - – Full articleOrbis Spólka Akcyjna (WSE:ORB) is trading with a trailing P/E of 11.2x, which is higher than the industry average of 10.1x. … Although some investors may jump to the conclusion that you should avoid the stock or sell if you own it, understanding the assumptions behind the P/E ratio might change your mind. … Check out our latest analysis for Orbis Spólka Akcyjna
Simply Wall St - – Full articleIn the case of Orbis Spólka Akcyjna (WSE:ORB), there's. … is a company with great financial health as well as a. … For those interested in understanding where the figures come from and want to see the analysis,
Simply Wall St - – Full articleDoes the share price for Orbis Spólka Akcyjna (WSE:ORB) reflect it's really worth? … by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. … If you are reading this and its not July 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Orbis Spólka Akcyjna by following the link below
Simply Wall St - – Full articleOrbis Spólka Akcyjna (WSE:ORB), a hospitality company based in Poland,. … A question to answer is whether Orbis Spólka Akcyjna's current trading price of PLN87.6 reflective of the actual value of the? … Let’s take a look at Orbis Spólka Akcyjna’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change
Simply Wall St - – Full articleOrbis Spólka Akcyjna (WSE:ORB) has returned to shareholders over the past 10 years, an average dividend yield of 2.00% annually. … Does Orbis Spólka Akcyjna tick all the boxes of a great dividend stock? … 5 checks you should do on a dividend stock
Simply Wall St - – Full articleHow does ORB’s operating cash flow stack up against its debt? … On top of this, ORB has generated cash from operations of ZŁ390.23M in the last twelve months, resulting in an operating cash to total debt ratio of 71.90%, meaning that ORB’s debt is appropriately covered by operating cash. … In ORB's, case, the ratio of 34.44x suggests that interest is comfortably covered, which means that lenders may be less hesitant to lend out more funding as ORB’s high interest coverage is seen as responsible and safe practice.Next Steps: ORB’s high cash coverage and appropriate debt levels indicate its ability to utilise its borrowings efficiently in order to generate ample cash flow.
Simply Wall St - – Full article
Orbis S.A. owns, operates, manages, and franchises hotels in Poland and internationally. As of November 28, 2018, it operated a network of approximately 130 hotels. The company operates its hotels under the Sofitel, Pullman, MGallery, Novotel, Mercure, ibis, ibis Styles, and ibis budget brands. The company was founded in 1920 and is based in Warsaw, Poland. Orbis S.A. is a subsidiary of Accor S.A.
Name: | Orbis S.A. |
ORB | |
Exchange: | WSE |
Founded: | 1920 |
PLN4,349,669,555 | |
46,077,008 | |
Website: | http://www.orbis.pl |
Address: |
Orbis S.A. 16 Bracka Street, Warsaw, 00-028, Poland |
Exchange Symbol | Ticker Symbol | Security | Exchange | Country | Currency | Listed on | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WSE | ORB | Common Bearer Shares | Warsaw Stock Exchange | PL | PLN | 25. Nov 1997 | |
LSE | 0LX3 | Common Bearer Shares | London Stock Exchange | GB | PLN | 25. Nov 1997 |
Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines | |
Consumer Services |
Area | Date (UTC time) |
---|---|
Company Analysis updated: | 2019/02/23 20:40 |
End of day share price update: | 2019/02/22 00:00 |
Last estimates confirmation: | 2019/02/21 |
Last earnings filing: | 2019/02/21 |
Last earnings reported: | 2018/12/31 |
Last annual earnings reported: | 2018/12/31 |
All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.