Rafako SA. (WSE:RFK): Does The -78.88% Earnings Drop Reflect A Longer Term Trend?

For long-term investors, assessing earnings trend over time and against industry benchmarks is more beneficial than examining a single earnings announcement at a point in time. Investors may find my commentary, albeit very high-level and brief, on Rafako SA. (WSE:RFK) useful as an attempt to give more color around how Rafako is currently performing. Check out our latest analysis for Rafako

Was RFK’s weak performance lately a part of a long-term decline?

For the most up-to-date info, I use data from the most recent 12 months, which annualizes the latest 6-month earnings release, or some times, the latest annual report is already the most recent financial data. This method allows me to assess different stocks in a uniform manner using the latest information. For Rafako, its latest earnings (trailing twelve month) is ZŁ2.22M, which, against the prior year’s figure, has fallen by a non-trivial -78.88%. Given that these values may be somewhat short-term, I’ve estimated an annualized five-year value for Rafako’s earnings, which stands at ZŁ2.93M This doesn’t look much better, as earnings seem to have steadily been falling over the longer term.

WSE:RFK Income Statement May 6th 18
WSE:RFK Income Statement May 6th 18
Why could this be happening? Well, let’s look at what’s going on with margins and if the entire industry is feeling the heat. Revenue growth in the past couple of years, has been positive, nevertheless earnings growth has been declining. This means Rafako has been ramping up expenses, which is harming margins and earnings, and is not a sustainable practice. Inspecting growth from a sector-level, the PL machinery industry has been relatively flat in terms of earnings growth . Thought this is a bit of a change from a volatile drop of -5.12% in the last few years. This means any headwind the industry is experiencing, it’s hitting Rafako harder than its peers.

What does this mean?

While past data is useful, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Usually companies that endure a drawn out period of decline in earnings are going through some sort of reinvestment phase Though if the entire industry is struggling to grow over time, it may be a sign of a structural change, which makes Rafako and its peers a higher risk investment. You should continue to research Rafako to get a more holistic view of the stock by looking at:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for RFK’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for RFK’s outlook.
  2. Financial Health: Is RFK’s operations financially sustainable? Balance sheets can be hard to analyze, which is why we’ve done it for you. Check out our financial health checks here.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.
NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the trailing twelve months from 31 December 2017. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.