Vista Group International (NZSE:VGL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of VGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

VGL (NZ$2) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (NZ$6.15)

VGL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

VGL Stock Overview

Vista Group International Limited provides software and data analytics solutions to the film industry worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 67.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 100.32% per year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for VGL from our risk checks.

Vista Group International Competitors

Serko

NZSE:SKO

NZ$430.1m

Gentrack Group

NZSE:GTK

NZ$139.7m

Plexure Group

NZSE:PX1

NZ$150.3m

Trade Window Holdings

NZSE:TWL

NZ$74.6m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Vista Group International
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	NZ$2.00
52 Week High	NZ$2.80
52 Week Low	NZ$1.43
Beta	1.49
1 Month Change	16.96%
3 Month Change	12.99%
1 Year Change	-12.66%
3 Year Change	-64.29%
5 Year Change	-30.07%
Change since IPO	56.86%

Shareholder Returns

	VGL	NZ Software	NZ Market
7D	11.1%	3.7%	0.3%
1Y	-12.7%	-32.3%	-11.1%

Return vs Industry: VGL exceeded the NZ Software industry which returned -32.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: VGL underperformed the NZ Market which returned -11.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is VGL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
VGL volatility
VGL Average Weekly Movement	6.3%
Software Industry Average Movement	5.9%
Market Average Movement	4.3%
10% most volatile stocks in NZ Market	8.3%
10% least volatile stocks in NZ Market	3.0%

Stable Share Price: VGL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of NZ stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: VGL's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1996	658	Kimbal Riley	https://www.vistagroup.co.nz

Vista Group International Limited provides software and data analytics solutions to the film industry worldwide. It operates through three segments: Cinema, Movio, and Additional Group Companies. The company offers Vista Cinema, a cinema management software; and Veezi, a cloud-based software as a service cinema management software for cinema exhibitors in the small circuit market.

Vista Group International Fundamentals Summary

How do Vista Group International's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
VGL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	NZ$464.05m
Earnings (TTM)	-NZ$9.80m
Revenue (TTM)	NZ$98.10m

4.8x

P/S Ratio

-47.6x

P/E Ratio

Is VGL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
VGL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	NZ$98.10m
Cost of Revenue	NZ$36.40m
Gross Profit	NZ$61.70m
Other Expenses	NZ$71.50m
Earnings	-NZ$9.80m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 28, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.042
Gross Margin	62.90%
Net Profit Margin	-9.99%
Debt/Equity Ratio	10.5%

How did VGL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is VGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VGL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for VGL. This is calculated by dividing VGL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is VGL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	NZ$464.05m

VGL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-108.5x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does VGL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

VGL PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for VGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.5x
SKO Serko	24.3x	50.0%	NZ$430.1m
GTK Gentrack Group	1.2x	6.2%	NZ$139.7m
PX1 Plexure Group	4.6x	24.2%	NZ$150.3m
TWL Trade Window Holdings	19.8x	52.3%	NZ$74.6m
VGL Vista Group International	4.8x	13.8%	NZ$464.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: VGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.8x) compared to the peer average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Software Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: VGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.8x) compared to the NZ Software industry average (4.9x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VGL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VGL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	4.8x
Fair PS Ratio	6.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: VGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VGL (NZ$2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$6.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Vista Group International forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

100.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VGL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.1%).

Earnings vs Market: VGL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: VGL is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: VGL's revenue (13.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (5.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VGL's revenue (13.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VGL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.9%).

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Past Performance

How has Vista Group International performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-66.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: VGL is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: VGL is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: VGL is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 66.4% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare VGL's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: VGL is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Software industry (21.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: VGL has a negative Return on Equity (-6.2%), as it is currently unprofitable.

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Financial Health

How is Vista Group International's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: VGL's short term assets (NZ$99.6M) exceed its short term liabilities (NZ$47.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: VGL's short term assets (NZ$99.6M) exceed its long term liabilities (NZ$35.7M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: VGL has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: VGL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 3.5% to 10.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: VGL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (67.3%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if VGL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Vista Group International current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

0.27%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate VGL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate VGL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if VGL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if VGL's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: VGL is not paying a notable dividend for the NZ market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as VGL has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Kimbal Riley

4.33yrs

Tenure

Mr. Kimbal Harrison Riley is Group Chief Executive of Vista Group International Limited from June 2022. He was Group Chief Executive Officer of Vista Group International Limited from April 03, 2018 to June...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: VGL's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: VGL's board of directors are considered experienced (6.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/10 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/10 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31