NZSE:ZEL

Stock Analysis Report

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Market Cap

NZ$1.5b

Last Updated

2021/07/31 07:02 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Share Price & News

How has Z Energy's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: ZEL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of NZ stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ZEL's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

5.4%

ZEL

-1.2%

NZ Oil and Gas

-1.4%

NZ Market


1 Year Return

4.6%

ZEL

23.1%

NZ Oil and Gas

7.6%

NZ Market

Return vs Industry: ZEL underperformed the NZ Oil and Gas industry which returned 23.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ZEL underperformed the NZ Market which returned 7.6% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

ZELIndustryMarket
7 Day5.4%-1.2%-1.4%
30 Day7.7%-1.0%-1.5%
90 Day10.1%1.5%-2.8%
1 Year11.2%4.6%26.1%23.1%10.3%7.6%
3 Year-50.6%-58.9%-24.9%-32.2%39.0%22.0%
5 Year-54.1%-65.3%4.2%-10.5%68.5%29.8%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Z Energy's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Z Energy undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: ZEL (NZ$2.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$7.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ZEL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: ZEL is poor value based on its PE Ratio (26.8x) compared to the Oceanic Oil and Gas industry average (8.1x).

PE vs Market: ZEL is poor value based on its PE Ratio (26.8x) compared to the NZ market (23.8x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ZEL is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.1x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: ZEL is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.5x) compared to the XO Oil and Gas industry average (1.9x).


Future Growth

How is Z Energy forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

24.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ZEL's forecast earnings growth (24.4% per year) is above the savings rate (2.1%).

Earnings vs Market: ZEL's earnings (24.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (11.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ZEL's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (5.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ZEL's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ZEL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.6%).


Past Performance

How has Z Energy performed over the past 5 years?

-29.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ZEL has a large one-off gain of NZ$17.4M impacting its March 31 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: ZEL became profitable in the past.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ZEL's earnings have declined by 29.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ZEL has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ZEL has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (-2.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: ZEL's Return on Equity (5.6%) is considered low.


Financial Health

How is Z Energy's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ZEL's short term assets (NZ$1.1B) exceed its short term liabilities (NZ$859.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: ZEL's short term assets (NZ$1.1B) exceed its long term liabilities (NZ$1.1B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ZEL's debt to equity ratio (76.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: ZEL's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 77.4% to 76.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ZEL's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (15.8%).

Interest Coverage: ZEL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.4x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is Z Energy current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.75%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ZEL's dividend (4.75%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the NZ market (2.28%).

High Dividend: ZEL's dividend (4.75%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the NZ market (4.53%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ZEL has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: ZEL has only been paying a dividend for 8 years, and since then payments have fallen.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (127.3%), ZEL's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: ZEL's dividends in 3 years are not forecast to be well covered by earnings (112.4% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Mike Bennetts

11.17yrs

Tenure

Mr. Michael John Bennetts, also known as Mike, BBS, Diploma in Corporate Management, CMInstD, serves as a Member of the Management of Morrison & Co Infrastructure Management Limited - Manager for Infratil ...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ZEL's management team is considered experienced (2.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: ZEL's board of directors are considered experienced (3.5 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Z Energy Limited's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Z Energy Limited
  • Ticker: ZEL
  • Exchange: NZSE
  • Founded: 1959
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing
  • Sector: Energy
  • Market Cap: NZ$1.534b
  • Shares outstanding: 520.14m
  • Website: https://www.z.co.nz

Number of Employees


Location

  • Z Energy Limited
  • 3 Queens Wharf
  • Wellington
  • 6011
  • New Zealand

Listings


Biography

Z Energy Limited sells transport fuel in New Zealand. It supplies fuel to retail customers, as well as commercial customers, such as airlines, trucking companies, shipping companies, and vehicle fleet oper...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/07/31 07:02
End of Day Share Price2021/07/30 00:00
Earnings2021/03/31
Annual Earnings2021/03/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.