NZX Limited Just Recorded A 17% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

The yearly results for NZX Limited (NZSE:NZX) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of NZ$121m were in line with what the analysts predicted, NZX surprised by delivering a statutory profit of NZ$0.077 per share, a notable 17% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for NZX

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from NZX's three analysts is for revenues of NZ$128.7m in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 6.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 23% to NZ$0.06 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of NZ$125.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.059 in 2025. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small increase to revenue estimates.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of NZ$1.75, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on NZX, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NZ$1.80 and the most bearish at NZ$1.70 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that NZX is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that NZX's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like NZX is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at NZ$1.75, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NZX. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NZX going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for NZX that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.