NZSE:EVO

Stock Analysis Report

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Market Cap

NZ$142.0m

Last Updated

2021/06/21 07:00 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Executive Summary

Evolve Education Group Limited provides early childhood education (ECE) services in New Zealand and Australia. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Adequate balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.

Share Price & News

How has Evolve Education Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: EVO is more volatile than 75% of NZ stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: EVO's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of NZ stocks.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-1.1%

EVO

4.0%

NZ Consumer Services

-0.4%

NZ Market


1 Year Return

-9.7%

EVO

30.6%

NZ Consumer Services

10.4%

NZ Market

Return vs Industry: EVO underperformed the NZ Consumer Services industry which returned 30.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EVO underperformed the NZ Market which returned 10.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

EVOIndustryMarket
7 Day-1.1%4.0%-0.4%
30 Day-23.2%10.0%0.05%
90 Day-33.8%-1.6%-1.4%
1 Year-9.7%-9.7%31.6%30.6%13.3%10.4%
3 Year-58.3%-80.5%33.0%18.3%36.7%20.4%
5 Year-70.8%-88.1%-3.2%29.3%83.7%41.3%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Evolve Education Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Evolve Education Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

0.88x

Price to Book (PB) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: EVO (NZ$0.86) is trading above our estimate of fair value (NZ$0.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EVO is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: EVO is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Oceanic Consumer Services industry average.

PE vs Market: EVO is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the NZ market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate EVO's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: EVO is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.9x) compared to the XO Consumer Services industry average (2x).


Future Growth

How is Evolve Education Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

57.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EVO is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.1%).

Earnings vs Market: EVO is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: EVO's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: EVO's revenue (18.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (6.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EVO's revenue (18.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: EVO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.2%).


Past Performance

How has Evolve Education Group performed over the past 5 years?

-54.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: EVO is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: EVO is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EVO is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 54.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare EVO's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: EVO is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Consumer Services industry (1.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: EVO has a negative Return on Equity (-5.18%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Financial Health

How is Evolve Education Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EVO's short term assets (NZ$41.5M) do not cover its short term liabilities (NZ$45.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: EVO's short term assets (NZ$41.5M) do not cover its long term liabilities (NZ$198.0M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EVO's debt to equity ratio (16.2%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: EVO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 16.3% to 16.2% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable EVO has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.

Forecast Cash Runway: EVO is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, due to free cash flow being positive and growing by 19.8% per year.


Dividend

What is Evolve Education Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

3.49%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EVO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EVO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EVO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EVO's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: EVO is not paying a notable dividend for the NZ market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of EVO's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the NZ market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Chris Scott (72 yo)

1.83yrs

Tenure

NZ$50,000

Compensation

Mr. Christopher John Scott, also known as Chris, B.Econ (Hons), has been Managing Director of Evolve Education Group Limited since August 16, 2019. Mr. Scott served as an Executive Director of G8 Education...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: EVO's management team is not considered experienced ( 2 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: EVO's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 14.1%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Evolve Education Group Limited's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Evolve Education Group Limited
  • Ticker: EVO
  • Exchange: NZSE
  • Founded: 2014
  • Industry: Education Services
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Market Cap: NZ$141.999m
  • Shares outstanding: 159.55m
  • Website: https://www.evolveeducation.co.nz

Location

  • Evolve Education Group Limited
  • 16 Kingston Street
  • Level 15
  • Auckland
  • 1010
  • New Zealand

Listings


Biography

Evolve Education Group Limited provides early childhood education (ECE) services in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates and manages ECE centers. It operates approximately 126 center-based ECE f...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/06/21 07:00
End of Day Share Price2021/06/21 00:00
Earnings2020/09/30
Annual Earnings2020/03/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.