NZSE:EVO

Stock Analysis Report

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Header cover image

Market Cap

NZ$124.4m

Last Updated

2021/07/25 07:03 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Executive Summary

Evolve Education Group Limited provides early childhood education (ECE) services in New Zealand and Australia. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Good value with reasonable growth potential.

Share Price & News

How has Evolve Education Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: EVO is more volatile than 75% of NZ stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: EVO's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of NZ stocks.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-4.9%

EVO

-1.6%

NZ Consumer Services

0.2%

NZ Market


1 Year Return

-1.5%

EVO

69.1%

NZ Consumer Services

9.9%

NZ Market

Return vs Industry: EVO underperformed the NZ Consumer Services industry which returned 69.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EVO underperformed the NZ Market which returned 9.9% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

EVOIndustryMarket
7 Day-4.9%-1.6%0.2%
30 Day-8.2%9.7%1.4%
90 Day-34.5%14.1%-1.0%
1 Year-1.5%-1.5%70.3%69.1%12.6%9.9%
3 Year-67.5%-84.8%42.7%25.9%38.9%21.9%
5 Year-74.1%-89.4%75.2%35.1%71.1%31.7%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Evolve Education Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Evolve Education Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

10.81x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: EVO (NZ$0.78) is trading above our estimate of fair value (NZ$0.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EVO is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: EVO is good value based on its PE Ratio (10.8x) compared to the Oceanic Consumer Services industry average (24.5x).

PE vs Market: EVO is good value based on its PE Ratio (10.8x) compared to the NZ market (23.3x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: EVO is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.6x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: EVO is good value based on its PB Ratio (1x) compared to the XO Consumer Services industry average (2.5x).


Future Growth

How is Evolve Education Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

16.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EVO's forecast earnings growth (16.7% per year) is above the savings rate (2.1%).

Earnings vs Market: EVO's earnings (16.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: EVO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: EVO's revenue (22.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (5.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EVO's revenue (22.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: EVO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10%).


Past Performance

How has Evolve Education Group performed over the past 5 years?

-46.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: EVO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: EVO became profitable in the past.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EVO has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -46.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: EVO has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: EVO has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Consumer Services industry (6%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: EVO's Return on Equity (9.2%) is considered low.


Financial Health

How is Evolve Education Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EVO's short term assets (NZ$61.6M) exceed its short term liabilities (NZ$28.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: EVO's short term assets (NZ$61.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities (NZ$236.3M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EVO's debt to equity ratio (33%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: EVO's debt to equity ratio has increased from 22.6% to 33% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: EVO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (95.1%).

Interest Coverage: EVO's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.8x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is Evolve Education Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

3.85%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EVO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EVO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EVO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EVO's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: EVO is not paying a notable dividend for the NZ market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of EVO's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the NZ market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Chris Scott (73 yo)

1.92yrs

Tenure

NZ$50,000

Compensation

Mr. Christopher John Scott, also known as Chris, B.Econ (Hons), has been Managing Director of Evolve Education Group Limited since August 16, 2019. Mr. Scott served as an Executive Director of G8 Education...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: EVO's management team is considered experienced (2 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: EVO's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 14.1%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Evolve Education Group Limited's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Evolve Education Group Limited
  • Ticker: EVO
  • Exchange: NZSE
  • Founded: 2014
  • Industry: Education Services
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Market Cap: NZ$124.449m
  • Shares outstanding: 159.55m
  • Website: https://www.evolveeducation.co.nz

Number of Employees


Location

  • Evolve Education Group Limited
  • 16 Kingston Street
  • Level 15
  • Auckland
  • 1010
  • New Zealand

Listings


Biography

Evolve Education Group Limited provides early childhood education (ECE) services in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates and manages ECE centers. It operates approximately 126 center-based ECE f...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/07/25 07:03
End of Day Share Price2021/07/23 00:00
Earnings2020/12/31
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.