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# Calculating The Fair Value Of AWF Madison Group Limited (NZSE:AWF)

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How far off is AWF Madison Group Limited (NZSE:AWF) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

### Step by step through the calculation

We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company’s last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

#### 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Levered FCF (NZ\$, Millions) NZ\$6.40 NZ\$5.76 NZ\$5.40 NZ\$5.20 NZ\$5.10 NZ\$5.07 NZ\$5.09 NZ\$5.14 NZ\$5.21 NZ\$5.29 Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -15.29% Est @ -9.99% Est @ -6.28% Est @ -3.69% Est @ -1.87% Est @ -0.6% Est @ 0.29% Est @ 0.92% Est @ 1.35% Est @ 1.66% Present Value (NZ\$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.07% NZ\$5.87 NZ\$4.84 NZ\$4.16 NZ\$3.68 NZ\$3.31 NZ\$3.01 NZ\$2.77 NZ\$2.56 NZ\$2.38 NZ\$2.22

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= NZ\$34.81m

“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 9.1%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NZ\$5.3m × (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (9.1% – 2.4%) = NZ\$81m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = NZ\$NZ\$81m ÷ ( 1 + 9.1%)10 = NZ\$33.90m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is NZ\$68.71m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of NZ\$2.06. Relative to the current share price of NZ\$1.85, the company appears about fair value at a 10% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.

### The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at AWF Madison Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 9.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.125. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

### Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For AWF Madison Group, There are three fundamental factors you should further examine:

1. Financial Health: Does AWF have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of AWF? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.