Are Investors Undervaluing Ocean Yield ASA (OB:OCY) By 35%?

Does the May share price for Ocean Yield ASA (OB:OCY) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Check out our latest analysis for Ocean Yield

The calculation

We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today’s dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF ($, Millions) $-113.00 $181.00 $204.20 $222.51 $237.65 $250.22 $260.81 $269.91 $277.93 $285.18
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x4 Analyst x5 Est @ 8.97% Est @ 6.8% Est @ 5.29% Est @ 4.23% Est @ 3.49% Est @ 2.97% Est @ 2.61%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 12.88% $-100.10 $142.04 $141.95 $137.03 $129.64 $120.92 $111.65 $102.36 $93.37 $84.87

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $963.74m

“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 12.9%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$285m × (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (12.9% – 1.8%) = US$2.6b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$2.6b ÷ ( 1 + 12.9%)10 = $776.32m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is $1.74b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate in the company’s reported currency of $10.92. However, OCY’s primary listing is in Norway, and 1 share of OCY in USD represents 8.78 ( USD/ NOK) share of OB:OCY, so the intrinsic value per share in NOK is NOK95.88. Compared to the current share price of NOK62, the company appears quite good value at a 35% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.

OB:OCY Intrinsic value, May 20th 2019
OB:OCY Intrinsic value, May 20th 2019

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ocean Yield as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 12.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.867. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Ocean Yield, I’ve put together three pertinent aspects you should look at:

  1. Financial Health: Does OCY have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does OCY’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of OCY? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every NO stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.