Did Changing Sentiment Drive Awilco Drilling’s Share Price Down A Painful 73%?

Awilco Drilling PLC (OB:AWDR) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 21% in the last month. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. After all, the share price is down 73% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.

Check out our latest analysis for Awilco Drilling

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

In the last half decade Awilco Drilling saw its share price fall as its EPS declined. This was, in part, due to extraordinary items impacting earnings. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it’s hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. However, we can say we’d expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

OB:AWDR Past and Future Earnings, February 26th 2019
OB:AWDR Past and Future Earnings, February 26th 2019

Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Awilco Drilling’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Dividend Lost

The value of past dividends are accounted for in the total shareholder return (TSR), but not in the share price return mentioned above. In some ways, TSR is a better measure of how well an investment has performed. Over the last 5 years, Awilco Drilling generated a TSR of -20%, which is, of course, better than the share price return. Although the company had to cut dividends, it has paid cash to shareholders in the past.

A Different Perspective

It’s nice to see that Awilco Drilling shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 21% over the last year. Notably the long term annualised TSR loss of 4.3% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. You might want to assess this data-rich visualization of its earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Of course Awilco Drilling may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NO exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.