Results: Aker BP ASA Delivered A Surprise Loss And Now Analysts Have New Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Aker BP ASA (OB:AKRBP) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to kr249 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$2.6b, in line with estimates, while Aker BP reported a statutory loss of US$0.51 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

Taking into account the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Aker BP provided consensus estimates of US$10.4b revenue in 2025, which would reflect an uncomfortable 11% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 44% to US$1.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$10.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.20 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for Aker BP

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr259, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aker BP at kr325 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr190. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 21% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 27% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 3.8% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Aker BP, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Aker BP. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Aker BP is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr259, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aker BP going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Aker BP (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.