Assessing ASML Holding's Valuation After Q1 Earnings Beat And Higher 2026 Revenue Outlook

Q1 earnings beat and higher 2026 outlook put ASML in focus

ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) just reported first quarter results that topped expectations and lifted its full year 2026 revenue outlook, as demand for its EUV tools tied to AI chip production remains strong.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

The share price has been volatile around the earnings release, with a 1-day share price return of a 4.22% decline, contrasting with a 24.71% year-to-date share price gain and a very large 1-year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has been strong despite recent export control concerns and sector-wide pullbacks.

If AI infrastructure is on your radar after ASML's update, it can be useful to scan the wider supply chain and see which other names are gaining traction through a 38 AI infrastructure stocks

After a 1 year total shareholder return that is very large and a current price of €1,230 that sits below the average analyst target of €1,432, you have to ask yourself: is there still upside here, or is the market already pricing in years of AI driven growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 42.2% Overvalued

ASML's most followed narrative, according to yiannisz, puts fair value at €864.91 per share, well below the current price of €1,230, setting up a clear valuation gap.

ASML has emerged successfully due to its unparalleled technological edge. EUV lithography is the jewel of its portfolio and will play an important role in making next-generation chips with smaller geometries and big processing power. Given this increasing demand for the systems in AI, cloud computing, and telecommunications, ASML is strategically positioned to lead the globe in technological innovation.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this story arrives at a higher required return and a rich profit multiple, yet still lands below today’s share price? The narrative hinges on ambitious revenue expansion, resilient margins and a long runway of cash flows from an installed base that keeps growing, but the exact mix of those assumptions is where things get interesting.

Result: Fair Value of €864.91 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, export controls on advanced tools and any slowdown in China related demand or premium multiples, such as a future P/E above 42, could pressure that thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Another angle on ASML's price tag

The narrative fair value of €864.91, which points to ASML as 42.2% overvalued, sits alongside a very different message from earnings multiples. At a 49.3x P/E, ASML trades below both the European semiconductor average of 53.5x and a peer average of 68.8x, and in line with a fair ratio of 49.3x. This suggests the market may already be close to the earnings multiple it could gravitate toward over time, so the real question is whether you think future profit delivery justifies staying at this kind of premium.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If this mix of strong returns and valuation debate leaves you unsure, take a closer look at both sides and weigh them against the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas?

If ASML has your attention, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other stocks that fit clear, focused themes built from hard numbers.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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