A Look At The Fair Value Of Y&G Corporation Bhd. (KLSE:Y&G)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Y&G Corporation Bhd is RM0.67 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With RM0.55 share price, Y&G Corporation Bhd appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• The average premium for Y&G Corporation Bhd's competitorsis currently 44%

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Y&G Corporation Bhd. (KLSE:Y&G) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Y&G Corporation Bhd

The Method

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions)	RM19.3m	RM15.6m	RM13.8m	RM12.7m	RM12.2m	RM12.0m	RM12.0m	RM12.1m	RM12.3m	RM12.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -28.41%	Est @ -18.81%	Est @ -12.09%	Est @ -7.38%	Est @ -4.09%	Est @ -1.78%	Est @ -0.17%	Est @ 0.96%	Est @ 1.75%	Est @ 2.31%
Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 11%	RM17.4	RM12.7	RM10.1	RM8.4	RM7.3	RM6.4	RM5.8	RM5.3	RM4.8	RM4.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM83m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM13m× (1 + 3.6%) ÷ (11%– 3.6%) = RM177m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= RM177m÷ ( 1 + 11%)¹⁰= RM63m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is RM145m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of RM0.6, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Y&G Corporation Bhd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.240. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Y&G Corporation Bhd, we've put together three fundamental elements you should explore:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Y&G Corporation Bhd (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Malaysian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.