Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. (BMV:TLEVISACPO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.7% to Mex$7.88 in the week after its latest full-year results. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of Mex$3.03 per share on revenues of Mex$62b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Grupo Televisa

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eleven analysts covering Grupo Televisa is for revenues of Mex$60.9b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 2.2% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 92% to Mex$0.24. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of Mex$62.0b and losses of Mex$0.49 per share in 2025. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very favorable reduction to losses per share in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of Mex$18.03, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Grupo Televisa analyst has a price target of Mex$55.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$8.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would also point out that the forecast 2.2% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 8.2% annually over the past five years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.9% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Grupo Televisa is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Grupo Televisa's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Grupo Televisa going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Grupo Televisa that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.