Alfa. de's (BMV:ALFAA) Strong Earnings Are Of Good Quality

The subdued stock price reaction suggests that Alfa S.A.B. de C.V.'s (BMV:ALFAA) strong earnings didn't offer any surprises. Investors are probably missing some underlying factors which are encouraging for the future of the company.

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A Closer Look At Alfa. de's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to June 2025, Alfa. de recorded an accrual ratio of -0.18. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of Mex$19b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of Mex$2.47b. Alfa. de shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. Notably, the company has issued new shares, thus diluting existing shareholders and reducing their share of future earnings.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, Alfa. de issued 15% more new shares over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Alfa. de's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of Alfa. de's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Unfortunately, we don't have any visibility into its profits three years back, because we lack the data. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.

If Alfa. de's EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

Our Take On Alfa. de's Profit Performance

In conclusion, Alfa. de has a strong cashflow relative to earnings, which indicates good quality earnings, but the dilution means its earnings per share are dropping faster than its profit. Considering all the aforementioned, we'd venture that Alfa. de's profit result is a pretty good guide to its true profitability, albeit a bit on the conservative side. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. To help with this, we've discovered 2 warning signs (1 is a bit concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Alfa. de.

Our examination of Alfa. de has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.