Should Weakness in Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V.'s (BMV:GCARSOA1) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financials?

With its stock down 5.7% over the past month, it is easy to disregard Grupo Carso. de (BMV:GCARSOA1). But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. In this article, we decided to focus on Grupo Carso. de's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Grupo Carso. de is:

8.8% = Mex$14b ÷ Mex$161b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every MX$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn MX$0.09 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Grupo Carso. de

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Grupo Carso. de's Earnings Growth And 8.8% ROE

It is hard to argue that Grupo Carso. de's ROE is much good in and of itself. Further, we noted that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 8.5%. However, the modest 14% net income growth seen by Grupo Carso. de over the past five years is a positive sign. Considering the low ROE, it is quite possible that there might also be some other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then compared Grupo Carso. de's net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 11% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Grupo Carso. de is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Grupo Carso. de Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Grupo Carso. de's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 17% (implying that it retains 83% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.

Additionally, Grupo Carso. de has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 75% over the next three years. Despite the higher expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.

Summary

In total, it does look like Grupo Carso. de has some positive aspects to its business. Even in spite of the low rate of return, the company has posted impressive earnings growth as a result of reinvesting heavily into its business. The latest industry analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to maintain its current growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.