Is SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, SoftBank Group Corp. (TSE:9984) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

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What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

What Is SoftBank Group's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2025, SoftBank Group had JP¥18t of debt, up from JP¥15t a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of JP¥3.71t, its net debt is less, at about JP¥14t.

How Healthy Is SoftBank Group's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that SoftBank Group had liabilities of JP¥13t due within a year, and liabilities of JP¥18t falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had JP¥3.71t in cash and JP¥3.01t in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling JP¥24t more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the JP¥13t company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, SoftBank Group would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

View our latest analysis for SoftBank Group

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Weak interest cover of 1.6 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 9.0 hit our confidence in SoftBank Group like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Looking on the bright side, SoftBank Group boosted its EBIT by a silky 30% in the last year. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine SoftBank Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, SoftBank Group burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

To be frank both SoftBank Group's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider SoftBank Group to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with SoftBank Group (including 2 which are a bit concerning) .

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.