Ebrains, Inc.'s (TSE:6599) Shares Climb 39% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Ebrains, Inc. (TSE:6599) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 39% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 57% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Ebrains' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Japan, where the median P/E ratio is around 15x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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The recent earnings growth at Ebrains would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to only match most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from rising. If not, then at least existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Ebrains

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Ebrains' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Growth For Ebrains?

Ebrains' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 2.6% last year. Still, lamentably EPS has fallen 8.4% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 11% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Ebrains' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Ebrains appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Ebrains currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Ebrains (at least 1 which is significant), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Ebrains, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.