Earnings Miss: ULVAC, Inc. Missed EPS By 41% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

As you might know, ULVAC, Inc. (TSE:6728) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥53b revenue coming in 3.0% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥33.76 missed the mark badly, arriving some 41% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ULVAC's ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥252.6b in 2026. This reflects a credible 4.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 38% to JP¥411. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥248.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥393 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on ULVAC's earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for ULVAC

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥8,025, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic ULVAC analyst has a price target of JP¥10,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥6,400. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ULVAC's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ULVAC.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards ULVAC following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for ULVAC going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for ULVAC you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.