Sumco Corporation (TSE:3436) Third-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Sumco Corporation (TSE:3436), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of JP¥99b missing analyst predictions by 3.8%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of JP¥11.66 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Sumco are now predicting revenues of JP¥443.3b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 9.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of JP¥5.85 in 2026, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of JP¥444.0b and JP¥5.75 per share in losses.

View our latest analysis for Sumco

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of JP¥1,535, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Sumco analyst has a price target of JP¥2,100 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥950. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Sumco'shistorical trends, as the 7.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 6.7% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.9% per year. So although Sumco is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,535, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Sumco analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Sumco (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.