Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd.'s (TSE:4617) 27% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd. (TSE:4617) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 78% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, Chugoku Marine Paints' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.7x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Chugoku Marine Paints hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Chugoku Marine Paints

Keen to find out how analysts think Chugoku Marine Paints' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Chugoku Marine Paints' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 18%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 8.3% per year during the coming three years according to the three analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 9.3% each year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it interesting that Chugoku Marine Paints is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Chugoku Marine Paints' P/E?

Chugoku Marine Paints shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Chugoku Marine Paints' analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Chugoku Marine Paints you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.