Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The full-year results for Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation (TSE:4188) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of JP¥4.4t were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 27% to hit JP¥31.63 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Mitsubishi Chemical Group's ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥3.79t in 2026, which would reflect a definite 14% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 203% to JP¥97.00. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥3.80t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥95.60 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Mitsubishi Chemical Group

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥917, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mitsubishi Chemical Group at JP¥1,300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥700. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 14% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.9% per year. It's pretty clear that Mitsubishi Chemical Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mitsubishi Chemical Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥917, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mitsubishi Chemical Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Mitsubishi Chemical Group that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.