McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Investors in McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. (TSE:2702) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.4% to close at JP¥6,120 following the release of its yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥405b were in line with what the analysts predicted, McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥240 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan)

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan)'s twin analysts is for revenues of JP¥417.4b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 2.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥238, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥428.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥243 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥7,400 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan)'s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan). On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥7,400, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan)'s Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.