Sumitomo Forestry (TSE:1911) sheds 13% this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth

It hasn't been the best quarter for Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. (TSE:1911) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 24% in that time. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 197% in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.

In light of the stock dropping 13% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Sumitomo Forestry achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 23% per year. That makes the EPS growth particularly close to the yearly share price growth of 24%. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We know that Sumitomo Forestry has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts .

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Sumitomo Forestry's TSR for the last 5 years was 252%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 5.9% in the twelve months, Sumitomo Forestry shareholders did even worse, losing 14% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 29%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Sumitomo Forestry better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Sumitomo Forestry you should know about.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.