NJS Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:2325) Shares Climb 30% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

NJS Co., Ltd. (TSE:2325) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 30% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 56%.

Following the firm bounce in price, NJS may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.6x, since almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 13x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

The recent earnings growth at NJS would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this good earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for NJS

Although there are no analyst estimates available for NJS, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

NJS' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 6.2%. The latest three year period has also seen a 9.9% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been respectable for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 11% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that NJS is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

The strong share price surge has got NJS' P/E rushing to great heights as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of NJS revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with NJS, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.