Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week saw the newest half-yearly earnings release from Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSE:7276), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenue of JP¥227b surpassed estimates by 4.3%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 64% below expectations at JP¥6.35 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Koito Manufacturing's nine analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥925.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 37% to JP¥106 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥905.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥104 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Koito Manufacturing

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of JP¥1,952, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Koito Manufacturing at JP¥2,500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,500. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Koito Manufacturing's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.3% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Koito Manufacturing is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Koito Manufacturing following these results. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,952, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Koito Manufacturing going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Koito Manufacturing has 3 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.