ERG S.p.A. (BIT:ERG): The Yield That Matters The Most

ERG S.p.A. (BIT:ERG) shareholders, and potential investors, need to understand how much cash the business makes from its core operational activities, as well as how much is invested back into the business. This difference directly flows down to how much the stock is worth. Operating in the industry, ERG is currently valued at €2.5b. Today we will examine ERG’s ability to generate cash flows, as well as the level of capital expenditure it is expected to incur over the next couple of years, which will result in how much money goes to you.

See our latest analysis for ERG

What is ERG’s cash yield?

Free cash flow (FCF) is the amount of cash ERG has left after it pays off its expenses, including its net capital expenditures, which is what the company needs to spend each year to maintain or grow its business operations.

The two ways to assess whether ERG’s FCF is sufficient, is to compare the FCF yield to the market index yield, as well as determine whether the top-line operating cash flows will continue to grow.

Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flows – Net Capital Expenditure

Free Cash Flow Yield = Free Cash Flow / Enterprise Value

where Enterprise Value = Market Capitalisation + Net Debt

Although, ERG generate sufficient cash from its operational activities, its FCF yield of 7.35% is roughly in-line with the broader market’s high single-digit yield. This means investors are being compensated at the same level as they would be if they just held the well-diversified market index.

BIT:ERG Net Worth January 2nd 19
BIT:ERG Net Worth January 2nd 19

Is ERG’s yield sustainable?

Does ERG’s future look brighter in terms of its ability to generate higher operating cash flows? This can be estimated by examining the trend of the company’s operating cash flow moving forward. In the next few years, a double-digit growth in operating cash of 35% is expected. The future seems buoyant if ERG can maintain its levels of capital expenditure as well. Below is a table of ERG’s operating cash flow in the past year, as well as the anticipated level going forward.
Current +1 year +2 year
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) €302m €428m €407m
OCF Growth Year-On-Year 42% -5.0%
OCF Growth From Current Year 35%

Next Steps:

ERG is compensating investors at a cash yield similar to the wider market portfolio. However, you are taking on more risk by holding a single-stock rather than the well-diversified market index. This means, in terms of risk and return, it’s not the best deal. Keep in mind that cash is only one aspect of investment analysis and there are other important fundamentals to assess. I suggest you continue to research ERG to get a more holistic view of the company by looking at:

  1. Valuation: What is ERG worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether ERG is currently mispriced by the market.
  2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on ERG’s board and the CEO’s back ground.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: If you believe you should cushion your portfolio with something less risky, scroll through our free list of these great stocks here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.