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Expert System

BIT:EXSY
Snowflake Description

Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
EXSY
BIT
€129M
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. IT
  3. Software
Company description

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally. The last earnings update was 82 days ago. More info.


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  • Expert System has significant price volatility in the past 3 months.
EXSY Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
19.6%
BIT:EXSY
3%
IT Software
2.6%
IT Market
1 Year Returns
158.2%
BIT:EXSY
13.5%
IT Software
-3.4%
IT Market
EXSY Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Expert System (EXSY) 19.6% 37.9% 94.6% 158.2% 72.4% 72%
IT Software 3% 9.1% 19.8% 13.5% 78.7% 80.7%
IT Market 2.6% 4.3% -0.2% -3.4% 8.5% -35.2%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • EXSY outperformed the Software industry which returned 13.5% over the past year.
  • EXSY outperformed the Market in Italy which returned -3.4% over the past year.
Price Volatility
EXSY
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

EXSY Value

 Is Expert System undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Expert System to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Expert System.

BIT:EXSY Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 13.6%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year IT Government Bond Rate 2.9%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for BIT:EXSY
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year IT Govt Bond Rate 2.9%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 9%
Software Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.14
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 1.139 (1 + (1- 24%) (15.93%))
1.185
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.19
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.93% + (1.185 * 9.02%)
13.63%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BIT:EXSY using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Expert System is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

BIT:EXSY DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (EUR, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 13.63%)
2019 -0.67 Analyst x2 -0.59
2020 1.62 Analyst x3 1.25
2021 3.15 Analyst x2 2.15
2022 4.60 Est @ 45.94% 2.76
2023 6.12 Est @ 33.04% 3.23
2024 7.58 Est @ 24.01% 3.52
2025 8.93 Est @ 17.69% 3.65
2026 10.11 Est @ 13.26% 3.64
2027 11.14 Est @ 10.16% 3.53
2028 12.03 Est @ 7.99% 3.35
Present value of next 10 years cash flows €26.49
BIT:EXSY DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= €12.03 × (1 + 2.93%) ÷ (13.63% – 2.93%)
€115.78
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= €115.78 ÷ (1 + 13.63%)10
€32.27
BIT:EXSY Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= €26.49 + €32.27
€58.76
Equity Value per Share
(EUR)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= €58.76 / 39.67
€1.48
BIT:EXSY Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (EUR) From above. €1.48
Current discount Discount to share price of €3.24
= -1 x (€3.24 - €1.48) / €1.48
-118.7%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

  • The current share price of Expert System is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a premium for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Expert System's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Expert System's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
BIT:EXSY PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2018-12-31) in EUR €-0.11
BIT:EXSY Share Price ** BIT (2019-06-21) in EUR €3.24
Italy Software Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 9 Publicly-Listed Software Companies 17.59x
Italy Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 239 Publicly-Listed Companies 15.93x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Expert System.

BIT:EXSY PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= BIT:EXSY Share Price ÷ EPS (both in EUR)

= 3.24 ÷ -0.11

-30.66x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Expert System is loss making, we can't compare its value to the IT Software industry average.
  • Expert System is loss making, we can't compare the value of its earnings to the Italy market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Expert System's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
BIT:EXSY PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section -30.66x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 3 Analysts
96.8%per year
Europe Software Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 80 Publicly-Listed Software Companies 2.17x
Italy Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 163 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.27x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to calculate PEG ratio for Expert System, we can't assess if its growth is good value.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Expert System's assets?
Raw Data
BIT:EXSY PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2018-12-31) in EUR €0.42
BIT:EXSY Share Price * BIT (2019-06-21) in EUR €3.24
Italy Software Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 10 Publicly-Listed Software Companies 2.69x
Italy Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 324 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.44x
BIT:EXSY PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= BIT:EXSY Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in EUR)

= 3.24 ÷ 0.42

7.69x

* Primary Listing of Expert System.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Expert System is overvalued based on assets compared to the IT Software industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Expert System's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Software industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Software industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Expert System has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

EXSY Future Performance

 How is Expert System expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
96.8%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Expert System expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Expert System's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.9%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Expert System's earnings growth is expected to exceed the Italy market average.
  • Expert System's revenue growth is expected to exceed the Italy market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
BIT:EXSY Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
BIT:EXSY Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 3 Analysts 96.8%
BIT:EXSY Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 3 Analysts 7.8%
Italy Software Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 38.4%
Italy Software Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 14.1%
Italy Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 9.1%
Italy Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.5%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
BIT:EXSY Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (5 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in EUR Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
BIT:EXSY Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31 48 10 1
2022-12-31 45 9 1
2021-12-31 44 10 3 3
2020-12-31 38 8 1 3
2019-12-31 33 6 -2 3
BIT:EXSY Past Financials Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2018-12-31 34 2 -4
2018-09-30 35 -4
2018-06-30 36 0 -4
2018-03-31 34 -1 -6
2017-12-31 32 -3 -8
2017-09-30 31 -10
2017-06-30 29 1 -11
2017-03-31 29 2 -9
2016-12-31 30 2 -8
2016-09-30 27 -7
2016-06-30 24 4 -6
2016-03-31 22 2 -5

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Expert System's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
  • Expert System's revenue is expected to grow by 7.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
BIT:EXSY Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (5 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Expert System Company Filings, last reported 5 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

BIT:EXSY Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31
2021-12-31 0.06 0.06 0.06 1.00
2020-12-31 0.03 0.04 0.02 2.00
2019-12-31 -0.03 -0.02 -0.05 3.00
BIT:EXSY Past Financials Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions) EPS *
2018-12-31 -0.11
2018-09-30 -0.12
2018-06-30
2018-03-31
2017-12-31 -0.23
2017-09-30 -0.27
2017-06-30 -0.38
2017-03-31 -0.34
2016-12-31 -0.30
2016-09-30 -0.26
2016-06-30 -0.23
2016-03-31 -0.17

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Expert System is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Expert System's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the Italy market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Italy market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Expert System has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

EXSY Past Performance

  How has Expert System performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Expert System's growth in the last year to its industry (Software).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Expert System does not make a profit and their year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years.
  • Unable to compare Expert System's 1-year earnings growth to the 5-year average as it is not currently profitable.
  • Unable to compare Expert System's 1-year growth to the IT Software industry average as it is not currently profitable.
Earnings and Revenue History
Expert System's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Expert System Company Filings, last reported 5 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

BIT:EXSY Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2018-12-31 33.91 -3.78 1.83
2018-09-30 34.96 -4.12 1.84
2018-06-30 36.07 -4.45 1.63
2018-03-31 34.04 -6.40 1.64
2017-12-31 31.96 -8.34 1.85
2017-09-30 30.57 -9.52 1.70
2017-06-30 29.18 -10.71 1.54
2017-03-31 29.36 -9.42 1.53
2016-12-31 29.54 -8.13 1.51
2016-09-30 27.00 -7.19 1.42
2016-06-30 24.46 -6.26 1.32
2016-03-31 22.26 -4.77 1.16
2015-12-31 20.06 -3.28 1.00
2015-09-30 18.92 -2.62 0.78
2015-06-30 17.60 -1.46 0.83
2015-03-31 16.32 -0.68 0.73
2014-12-31 15.05 0.09 0.63
2014-09-30 13.66 -0.44 0.71
2014-06-30 12.21 -0.64 0.47
2014-03-31 12.59 -0.21 0.49
2013-12-31 13.22 -0.61 0.55
2012-12-31 11.91 0.70 0.55

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • It is difficult to establish if Expert System has efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%) as it is loss-making.
  • It is difficult to establish if Expert System has efficiently used its assets last year compared to the IT Software industry average (Return on Assets) as it is loss-making.
  • It is difficult to establish if Expert System improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed) as it is currently loss-making.
X
Past performance checks
We assess Expert System's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Software industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Expert System has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

EXSY Health

 How is Expert System's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Expert System's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Expert System is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Expert System's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Expert System's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • Low level of unsold assets.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 1.8x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Expert System Company Filings, last reported 5 months ago.

BIT:EXSY Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2018-12-31 15.08 20.47 12.84
2018-09-30 15.08 20.47 12.84
2018-06-30 15.24 19.41 14.03
2018-03-31 15.24 19.41 14.03
2017-12-31 19.28 20.06 15.85
2017-09-30 19.28 20.06 15.85
2017-06-30 9.67 20.76 11.07
2017-03-31 9.67 20.76 11.07
2016-12-31 16.44 21.47 14.52
2016-09-30 16.44 21.47 14.52
2016-06-30 15.90 22.24 11.90
2016-03-31 15.90 22.24 11.90
2015-12-31 20.14 23.68 16.76
2015-09-30 20.14 23.68 16.76
2015-06-30 14.66 11.66 13.00
2015-03-31 14.66 11.66 13.00
2014-12-31 16.96 7.74 13.13
2014-09-30 16.96 7.74 13.13
2014-06-30 17.82 6.45 8.22
2014-03-31 17.82 6.45 8.22
2013-12-31 4.66 8.16 4.48
2012-12-31 5.93 6.97 2.07
  • Expert System's level of debt (135.8%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (169.4% vs 135.8% today).
CASH RUNWAY ANALYSIS

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

  • Expert System has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flow.
  • Expert System has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of -52.1% each year.
X
Financial health checks
We assess Expert System's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Expert System has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

EXSY Dividends

 What is Expert System's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0%
Current annual income from Expert System dividends. Estimated to be 0% next year.
If you bought €2,000 of Expert System shares you are expected to receive €0 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Unable to evaluate Expert System's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to evaluate Expert System's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
BIT:EXSY Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
Europe Software Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 84 Stocks 1.3%
Italy Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 185 Stocks 4.1%
Italy Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 1.1%
Italy Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 2.1%
Italy Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 4.5%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

BIT:EXSY Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in €) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31
2021-12-31
2020-12-31 0.00 1.00
2019-12-31 0.00 1.00

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as Expert System has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to verify if Expert System's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Expert System's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as Expert System has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • No need to calculate the sustainability of Expert System's dividends in 3 years as they are not expected to pay a notable one for Italy.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Expert System's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1.1%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Expert System afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Expert System has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

EXSY Management

 What is the CEO of Expert System's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Stefano Spaggiari
CEO Bio

Mr. Stefano Spaggiari founded Expert System S.p.A. in 1989 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Spaggiari served as Managing Director of Expert System SpA. He aimed at developing advanced technology to allow organizations to use any form of information available to improve the quality and reliability of their decision process. In particular, Mr. Spaggiari strongly believes that an effective management of unstructured information can provide huge value to organizations and that this sector will grow significatntly in the next years. In these years he has been instrumental in leading the company to reach market leadership in Italy signing important customers like Telecom Italia, Tiscali, RAI (Radiotelevisione italiana), BNL (Banca Nazionale del Lavoro) and in obtaining important european and italian public funds for R&D activity. He serves as a Director of Expert System SpA. Mr. Spaggiari holds a degree in Computer Science at the University of Modena (Italy) and in 2005, an EMBA at the business school of the University of Bologna (Italy).

CEO Compensation
  • Insufficient data for Stefano to compare compensation growth.
  • Insufficient data for Stefano to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Italy.
Management Team

Marco Varone

TITLE
Founder

Stefano Spaggiari

TITLE
Founder

Maria Mistrali

TITLE
Chief Financial Officer

Francesca Petronio

TITLE
Corporate HR Director

Andrea Melegari

TITLE
Senior EVP of Defense

Marcello Pellacani

TITLE
VP of Strategic Initiatives & RPA Alliances

Claudio Palmolungo

TITLE
Executive Vice President of Europe

Daniel Mayer

TITLE
CMO & SVP for Products-Expert System Enterprise
TENURE
1.3 yrs

Giuseppe Strafforello

TITLE
Executive Vice President and CTO of Expert System USA

Christophe Aubry

TITLE
Chief Executive Officer of Expert System Enterprise
TENURE
1.3 yrs
Board of Directors

Stefano Spaggiari

TITLE
Founder

Andrea Melegari

TITLE
Senior EVP of Defense

Marcello Pellacani

TITLE
VP of Strategic Initiatives & RPA Alliances
TENURE
3.5 yrs

Alessandro Augusto

TITLE
Chairman of the Board of Statutory Auditors

Marco Varone

TITLE
Founder

Paolo Lombardi

TITLE
Director

Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli

TITLE
Independent Director
AGE
70

Gabriella Franzini

TITLE
Director

Stefano Pedrini

TITLE
Independent Director
TENURE
0.9 yrs

Andrea Cuoghi

TITLE
Standing Auditor
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • More shares have been bought than sold by Expert System insiders in the past 3 months, but not in substantial volumes.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (€) Value (€)
05. Apr 19 Buy Andrea Melegari Individual 04. Apr 19 04. Apr 19 5,000 €1.55 €7,750
01. Aug 18 Buy Marco Varone Individual 26. Jul 18 26. Jul 18 25,000 €1.15 €28,750
X
Management checks
We assess Expert System's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Expert System has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

EXSY News

Simply Wall St News

The Expert System (BIT:EXSY) Share Price Is Up 61% And Shareholders Are Holding On

(BIT:EXSY) share price is 61% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around -9.7% (not including dividends) in the same period. … Expert System isn't a profitable company, so it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). … The modest growth is probably largely reflected in the share price, which is up 61%.

Simply Wall St -

Could The Expert System S.p.A. (BIT:EXSY) Ownership Structure Tell Us Something Useful?

The big shareholder groups in Expert System S.p.A. … Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning shares in smaller companies. … With a market capitalization of €52m, Expert System is a small cap stock, so it might not be well known by many institutional investors.

Simply Wall St -

When Will Expert System S.p.A. (BIT:EXSY) Turn A Profit?

The €56m market-cap posted a loss in its most recent financial year of -€8.3m and a latest trailing-twelve-month loss of -€4.5m shrinking the gap between loss and breakeven. … I’ve put together a brief outline of industry analyst expectations for EXSY, its year of breakeven and its implied growth rate … Consensus from the 4 Software analysts is EXSY is on the verge of breakeven.

Simply Wall St -

How Financially Strong Is Expert System S.p.A. (BIT:EXSY)?

(BIT:EXSY) is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of €51m. … While investors primarily focus on the growth potential and competitive landscape of the small-cap companies, they end up ignoring a key aspect, which could be the biggest threat to its existence: its financial health. … Companies operating in the Software industry,

Simply Wall St -

Expert System SpA (BIT:EXSY): Is Breakeven Near?

The €43m market-cap company’s loss lessens since it announced a -€8.3m bottom-line in the full financial year, compared to the latest trailing-twelve-month loss of -€4.5m, as it approaches breakeven? … In this article, I will touch on the expectations for EXSY’s growth and when analysts expect the company to become profitable … Consensus from the 3 Software analysts is EXSY is on the verge of breakeven.

Simply Wall St -

An Intrinsic Calculation For Expert System SpA (BIT:EXSY) Shows It's 46.4% Undervalued

How far off is Expert System SpA (BIT:EXSY) from its intrinsic value? … by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. … Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model

Simply Wall St -

Shareholders Should Check If Insiders Own Shares In Expert System SpA (BIT:EXSY)

I am going to take a deep dive into Expert System SpA’s (BIT:EXSY) most recent ownership structure, not a frequent subject of discussion among individual investors. … Ownership structure has been found to have an impact on shareholder returns in both short- and long-term. … Differences in ownership structure of companies can have a profound effect on how management's incentives are aligned with shareholder returns, and whether they adhere to corporate governance best practices.

Simply Wall St -

Loss-Making Expert System SpA (BIT:EXSY) Expected To Breakeven

The €43.05m market-cap company announced a latest loss of -€8.34m on 31 December 2017 for its most recent financial year result. … Below I will provide a high-level summary of the industry analysts’ expectations for EXSY … See our latest analysis for Expert System

Simply Wall St -

Expert System SpA (BIT:EXSY) Is Trading At A 41.43% Discount

I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Expert System SpA (BIT:EXSY). … by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. … Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model

Simply Wall St -

Expert System Sp.A. (BIT:EXSY): Time For A Financial Health Check

How does EXSY’s operating cash flow stack up against its debt? … Moving onto cash from operations, its small level of operating cash flow means calculating cash-to-debt wouldn't be too useful, though these low levels of cash means that operational efficiency is worth a look. … Maintaining a high level of debt, while revenues are still below costs, can be dangerous as liquidity tends to dry up in unexpected downturns.Next Steps: EXSY’s cash flow coverage indicates it could improve its operating efficiency in order to meet demand for debt repayments should unforeseen events arise.

Simply Wall St -

EXSY Company Info

Description

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally. The company offers Cogito cognitive technology for cognitive computing; Cogito Discover for entity extraction, classification, and text analytics; Cogito Intelligence Platform, an intelligence platform that processes content, and populates categories and entity lists to reveal the information for analysis activities; Cogito Answers, a customer experience management and analytics software solution; and Cogito for Claims management process with artificial intelligence. It also provides Cogito for Underwriting to enhance the underwriting process and reduce risk exposure; Cogito Studio that helps organizations and developers to assert their business priorities while creating semantic-powered solutions for robotic process automation and information intelligence; Biopharma Navigator, a natural language processing software for life sciences; and Cogito API, a natural language processing API, as well as Cogito integrations. The company serves the banking and insurance, public administration, defense and intelligence, life science and pharma, oil and gas, media and publishing, and other industries. Expert System S.p.A. was founded in 1989 and is based in Modena, Italy.

Details
Name: Expert System S.p.A.
EXSY
Exchange: BIT
Founded: 1989
€128,534,723
39,671,211
Website: http://www.expertsystem.com
Address: Expert System S.p.A.
Via Virgilio, 56/Q,
Modena,
Modena, 41123,
Italy
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
BIT EXSY Common Stock Borsa Italiana IT EUR 18. Feb 2014
OTCPK EXSP.F Common Stock Pink Sheets LLC US USD 18. Feb 2014
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
230
Expert System employees.
Industry
Application Software
Software
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/06/23 21:56
End of day share price update: 2019/06/21 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/06/21
Last earnings filing: 2019/04/02
Last earnings reported: 2018/12/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.