BIT:EXSY

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally.


Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential with imperfect balance sheet.

Share Price & News

How has Expert System's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: EXSY's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.6%

EXSY

5.3%

IT Software

-1.3%

IT Market


1 Year Return

47.5%

EXSY

6.6%

IT Software

-24.5%

IT Market

Return vs Industry: EXSY exceeded the Italian Software industry which returned 4.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EXSY exceeded the Italian Market which returned -25.8% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

EXSYIndustryMarket
7 Day1.6%5.3%-1.3%
30 Day2.1%-2.8%-20.9%
90 Day-28.1%-11.3%-27.7%
1 Year47.5%47.5%7.8%6.6%-21.2%-24.5%
3 Year23.1%22.1%-11.9%-15.6%-11.8%-20.6%
5 Year-4.6%-5.7%38.9%27.8%-24.1%-50.5%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Expert System's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Expert System undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

5x

Price to Book (PB) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: EXSY (€2.24) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€0.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EXSY is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: EXSY is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Software industry average.

PE vs Market: EXSY is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Italian market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate EXSY's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: EXSY is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (5x) compared to the IT Software industry average (3.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Expert System forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

50.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EXSY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.2%).

Earnings vs Market: EXSY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: EXSY's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: EXSY's revenue (10.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (0.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EXSY's revenue (10.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Expert System performed over the past 5 years?

-22.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: EXSY is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: EXSY is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EXSY is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -22.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare EXSY's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: EXSY is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Software industry (-25.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: EXSY has a negative Return on Equity (-22.72%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Expert System's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EXSY's short term assets (€44.4M) exceed its short term liabilities (€20.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: EXSY's short term assets (€44.4M) exceed its long term liabilities (€22.5M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EXSY's debt to equity ratio (126.3%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: EXSY's debt to equity ratio has increased from 36.3% to 126.3% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: EXSY has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: EXSY's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 2x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY has enough cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Expert System's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EXSY's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EXSY's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of EXSY's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Italian market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.08yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Stefano Spaggiari

no data

Tenure

Mr. Stefano Spaggiari founded Expert System S.p.A. in 1989 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Spaggiari served as Managing Director of Expert System SpA. He aimed at developing advanced technol ...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Marco Varone
Founderno datano data7.7% 6.9m
Stefano Spaggiari
Founderno datano data7.67% 6.9m
Gabriele Donino
Group Chief Operating Officer0.083yrno datano data
Francesca Petronio
Corporate HR Directorno datano datano data
Andrea Melegari
Senior EVP of Defenseno datano data1.15% 1.0m
Marcello Pellacani
VP of Strategic Initiatives & RPA Alliances4.33yrsno data0.076% 67.5k
Claudio Palmolungo
Executive Vice President of Europeno datano datano data
Daniel Mayer
CMO & SVP for Products-Expert System Enterprise2.17yrsno datano data
Christophe Aubry
Executive VP & COO of Expert System Enterprise0.083yrno datano data
Giuseppe Strafforello
Executive VP and CTO of Expert System USAno datano datano data

0.08yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: EXSY's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 11.8%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Expert System S.p.A.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Expert System S.p.A.
  • Ticker: EXSY
  • Exchange: BIT
  • Founded: 1989
  • Industry: Application Software
  • Sector: Software
  • Market Cap: €89.408m
  • Shares outstanding: 40.00m
  • Website: https://www.expertsystem.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Expert System S.p.A.
  • Via Virgilio, 56/Q
  • Modena
  • Modena
  • 41123
  • Italy

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
EXSYBIT (Borsa Italiana)YesCommon StockITEURFeb 2014
EXSP.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesCommon StockUSUSDFeb 2014
3K2DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURFeb 2014

Biography

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally. The company offers Cogito cognitive technology for cognitive computing; Cogito Discover for entity extraction, classification, and text analytics; Cogito Intelligence Platform, an Information intelligence software for real-time analysis of unstructured data streams; Cogito Answers, a customer support automation software that allows human like interaction between customers and internal staff; and Cogito for Claims that automate insurance claims management with natural language understanding. It also provides Cogito for Underwriting to enhance the underwriting process and reduce risk exposure; Cogito Studio, a fully integrated development environment for building and deploying a custom AI-based text model that leverages the cognitive abilities of the Cogito platform; and Biopharma Navigator, a natural language processing software for life sciences. The company serves the banking and insurance, public administration, defense and intelligence, life science and pharma, oil and gas, media and publishing, and other industries. Expert System S.p.A. was founded in 1989 and is based in Modena, Italy. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/04/03 01:04
End of Day Share Price2020/04/02 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.