BIT:EXSY

Stock Analysis Report

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Header cover image

Executive Summary

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally.


Snowflake Analysis

Adequate balance sheet with limited growth.

Share Price & News

How has Expert System's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: EXSY has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0.5%

EXSY

1.8%

IT Software

1.9%

IT Market


1 Year Return

8.3%

EXSY

15.0%

IT Software

-6.6%

IT Market

Return vs Industry: EXSY underperformed the Italian Software industry which returned 15% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EXSY exceeded the Italian Market which returned -6.6% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

EXSYIndustryMarket
7 Day0.5%1.8%1.9%
30 Day2.5%1.7%-0.8%
90 Day-0.5%8.1%10.9%
1 Year8.6%8.3%15.4%15.0%-4.2%-6.6%
3 Year67.1%65.3%2.1%-2.1%-4.9%-13.6%
5 Year31.8%30.0%81.1%67.7%-7.4%-36.6%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Expert System's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Expert System undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

10.2%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: EXSY (€2.86) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€3.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EXSY is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: EXSY is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the IT Software industry average.

PE vs Market: EXSY is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Italian market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate EXSY's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: EXSY is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (5.5x) compared to the IT Software industry average (3.9x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Expert System forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

-58.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EXSY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: EXSY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: EXSY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: EXSY's revenue (21.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (5.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EXSY's revenue (21.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: EXSY is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Expert System performed over the past 5 years?

-5.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: EXSY is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: EXSY is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EXSY is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 5.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare EXSY's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: EXSY is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Software industry (34.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: EXSY has a negative Return on Equity (-4.7%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Expert System's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EXSY's short term assets (€51.0M) exceed its short term liabilities (€19.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: EXSY's short term assets (€51.0M) exceed its long term liabilities (€25.6M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EXSY's debt to equity ratio (117.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: EXSY's debt to equity ratio has increased from 46% to 117.1% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: EXSY has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: EXSY has sufficient cash runway for 1.3 years if free cash flow continues to grow at historical rates of 0.6% each year.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Expert System current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EXSY's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EXSY's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of EXSY's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Italian market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Walt Mayo

0.58

Tenure

Mr. Walt Lloyd Mayo III serves as Chief Executive Officer and Director at Expert System S.p.A. since 2020. He served as Group Chief Executive Officer of Expert System Group at Expert System S.p.A. until 20 ...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Stefano Spaggiari
Founder & Executive Chairman0.58yrno data6.08%
€ 8.8m
Walt Mayo
CEO & Director0.58yrno datano data
Marco Varone
Founder0.58yrno data6.11%
€ 8.8m
Gabriele Donino
Chief Operating Officer0.42yrno datano data
Francesca Petronio
Corporate Human Resources Director9.08yrsno datano data
Andrea Melegari
Senior Executive Vice President of Defenseno datano data0.92%
€ 1.3m
Marcello Pellacani
VP of Strategic Initiatives & RPA Alliances and Director of Expert System UKno datano data0.060%
€ 86.4k
Claudio Palmolungo
Executive Vice President of Europeno datano datano data
Daniel Mayer
CMO & SVP for Products-Expert System Enterprise2.5yrsno datano data
Christophe Aubry
Managing Director of Expert System Enterprise0.42yrno datano data
Giuseppe Strafforello
Executive VP and CTO of Expert System USAno datano datano data
Louis Andre
Chief Executive Officer of Expert System USAno datano datano data

0.6yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: EXSY's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Stefano Spaggiari
Founder & Executive Chairman0.58yrno data6.08%
€ 8.8m
Walt Mayo
CEO & Director0.58yrno datano data
Marco Varone
Founder0.58yrno data6.11%
€ 8.8m
Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli
Independent Directorno datano datano data
Stefano Pedrini
Independent Director2.08yrsno datano data
Sara Polatti
Director0.58yrno datano data
Ettore Leale
Director0.58yrno datano data
Karen Cambray
Director0.58yrno datano data
Patrizia Arioli
President of Board of Statutory Auditors0.58yrno datano data
Daniele Ponte
Regular Auditor0.58yrno datano data
Federico Bacchiega
Regular Auditor0.58yrno datano data

0.6yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Board: EXSY's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 26.2%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Expert System S.p.A.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Expert System S.p.A.
  • Ticker: EXSY
  • Exchange: BIT
  • Founded: 1989
  • Industry: Application Software
  • Sector: Software
  • Market Cap: €144.144m
  • Shares outstanding: 50.40m
  • Website: https://www.expertsystem.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Expert System S.p.A.
  • Via Virgilio 56/Q
  • 48/H – Scala 5
  • Modena
  • Modena
  • 41123
  • Italy

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
EXSYBIT (Borsa Italiana)YesCommon StockITEURFeb 2014
EXSP.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesCommon StockUSUSDFeb 2014
3K2DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURFeb 2014

Biography

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally. The comp ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/08/09 20:46
End of Day Share Price2020/08/07 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.