BIT:EXSY

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.

Risks

  • Expert System has significant price volatility in the past 3 months.

Share Price & News

How has Expert System's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

17.4%

BIT:EXSY

3.6%

IT Software

3.4%

IT Market


1 Year Return

143.7%

BIT:EXSY

15.0%

IT Software

-1.9%

IT Market

EXSY outperformed the Software industry which returned 13.2% over the past year.

EXSY outperformed the Market in Italy which returned -3.6% over the past year.


Share holder returns

EXSYIndustryMarket
7 Day17.4%3.6%3.4%
30 Day-9.1%-5.2%-3.7%
90 Day26.6%5.4%1.6%
1 Year143.7%143.7%16.7%15.0%2.3%-1.9%
3 Year58.6%57.3%73.3%63.2%21.1%4.3%
5 Year65.0%63.1%89.4%73.2%7.9%-35.6%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Expert System's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Expert System undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

6.88x

Price to Book (PB) ratio


Intrinsic Value Based on Future Cash Flows

Expert System's share price is above the future cash flow value, it's not available at a moderate discount (< 20%).

Expert System's share price is above the future cash flow value, it's not available at a substantial discount (< 40%).


Price Based on Earnings

Expert System is loss making, we can't compare its value to the IT Software industry average.

Expert System is loss making, we can't compare the value of its earnings to the Italy market.


Price Based on Expected Growth

Unable to calculate PEG ratio for Expert System, we can't assess if its growth is good value.


Price Based on Value of Assets

Expert System is overvalued based on assets compared to the IT Software industry average.


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Expert System expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

96.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Estimates


Future Annual Growth Analysis

Expert System's revenue is expected to grow by 7.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).

Expert System's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.

Expert System's revenue growth is expected to exceed the Italy market average.

Expert System's earnings growth is expected to exceed the Italy market average.

Expert System's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.9%.


Earnings per Share Growth Estimates


Future Return on Equity

Expert System is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Expert System performed over the past 5 years?

-35.5%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Expert System does not make a profit and their year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years.

Unable to compare Expert System's 1-year earnings growth to the 5-year average as it is not currently profitable.

Unable to compare Expert System's 1-year growth to the IT Software industry average as it is not currently profitable.


Return on Equity

It is difficult to establish if Expert System has efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%) as it is loss-making.


Return on Assets

It is difficult to establish if Expert System has efficiently used its assets last year compared to the IT Software industry average (Return on Assets) as it is loss-making.


Return on Capital Employed

It is difficult to establish if Expert System improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed) as it is currently loss-making.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Expert System's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Expert System is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.

Expert System's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Expert System's level of debt (135.8%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).

The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (169.4% vs 135.8% today).


Balance Sheet

Low level of unsold assets.

Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 1.8x debt.


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Expert System has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flow.

Expert System has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of -52.1% each year.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Expert System's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield and Payments Analysis

Unable to evaluate Expert System's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.

Unable to evaluate Expert System's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.

Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as Expert System has not reported any payouts.

Unable to verify if Expert System's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as Expert System has not reported any payouts.


Future Payout to Shareholders

No need to calculate the sustainability of Expert System's dividends in 3 years as they are not expected to pay a notable one for Italy.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Expert System's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?


CEO

Stefano Spaggiari 0

0.0yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. Stefano Spaggiari founded Expert System S.p.A. in 1989 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Spaggiari served as Managing Director of Expert System SpA. He aimed at developing advanced technol ...


Insider Trading

No 3 month open market individual insider trading information.


Recent Insider Transactions

Buy€7,75005 Apr 19
Andrea Melegari
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Senior EVP of Defense
Shares5,000
Max Price€1.55

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Louis Andre

    Chief Executive Officer of Expert System Usa

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Giuseppe Strafforello

    Executive Vice President and CTO of Expert System USA

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Stefano Spaggiari

    Founder

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Christophe Aubry

    Chief Executive Officer of Expert System Enterprise

    • Tenure: 1.5yrs
  • Marco Varone

    Founder

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Andrea Melegari

    Senior EVP of Defense

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Marcello Pellacani

    VP of Strategic Initiatives & RPA Alliances

    • Tenure: 3.7yrs
  • Claudio Palmolungo

    Executive Vice President of Europe

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Daniel Mayer

    CMO & SVP for Products-Expert System Enterprise

    • Tenure: 1.5yrs
  • Francesca Petronio

    Corporate HR Director

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs

Board Members

  • Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli (71yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Stefano Spaggiari

    Founder

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Marco Varone

    Founder

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Andrea Melegari

    Senior EVP of Defense

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Paolo Lombardi

    Director

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Gabriella Franzini

    Director

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Marcello Pellacani

    VP of Strategic Initiatives & RPA Alliances

    • Tenure: 3.7yrs
  • Alessandro Augusto

    Chairman of the Board of Statutory Auditors

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Andrea Cuoghi

    Standing Auditor

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Stefano Pedrini

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 1.1yrs

Company Information

Expert System S.p.A.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Expert System S.p.A.
  • Ticker: EXSY
  • Exchange: BIT
  • Founded: 1989
  • Industry: Application Software
  • Sector: Software
  • Market Cap: €114.395m
  • Shares outstanding: 39.86m
  • Website: https://www.expertsystem.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Expert System S.p.A.
  • Via Virgilio, 56/Q
  • Modena
  • Modena
  • 41123
  • Italy

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
EXSYBIT (Borsa Italiana)YesCommon StockITEURFeb 2014

Biography

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally. The company o ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/08/21 21:38
End of Day Share Price2019/08/21 00:00
Earnings2018/12/31
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.