BIT:EXSY

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Mediocre balance sheet with concerning outlook.

Share Price & News

How has Expert System's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

3.4%

EXSY

0.7%

IT Software

1.3%

IT Market


1 Year Return

124.7%

EXSY

27.2%

IT Software

13.9%

IT Market

Return vs Industry: EXSY exceeded the Italian Software industry which returned 27.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EXSY exceeded the Italian Market which returned 13.9% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

EXSYIndustryMarket
7 Day3.4%0.7%1.3%
30 Day-9.1%-3.3%0.8%
90 Day-5.4%-4.2%1.3%
1 Year124.7%124.7%29.1%27.2%19.1%13.9%
3 Year49.2%47.9%67.2%58.0%24.5%6.2%
5 Year54.2%52.4%108.1%91.9%23.0%-26.0%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Expert System's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Expert System undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

6.71x

Price to Book (PB) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: EXSY (€3) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€1.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EXSY is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: EXSY is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Software industry average.

PE vs Market: EXSY is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Italian market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate EXSY's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: EXSY is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (6.7x) compared to the IT Software industry average (3.4x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Expert System forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

107.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EXSY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: EXSY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: EXSY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: EXSY's revenue (13.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EXSY's revenue (13.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Expert System performed over the past 5 years?

-22.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EXSY is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -22.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare EXSY's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: EXSY is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Software industry (7.3%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: EXSY has a negative Return on Equity (-22.72%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets

ROA vs Industry: EXSY is currently unprofitable, so its Return on Assets is negative.


Return on Capital Employed

ROCE Improving: EXSY is currently unprofitable, so its Return on Capital Employed is negative.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Expert System's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EXSY's short term assets (€44.4M) exceeds its short term liabilities (€20.2M)

Long Term Liabilities: EXSY's short term assets (44.4M) exceeds its long term liabilities (22.5M)


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EXSY's debt to equity ratio (126.3%) is considered high

Reducing Debt: EXSY's debt to equity ratio has increased from 36.3% to 126.3% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: EXSY has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: EXSY's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 1.966880x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: EXSY has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Expert System's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%2.1%markettop25%4.4%industryaverage1.4%forecastin3Yearsn/a

Current dividend yield vs market & industry


Stability and Growth of Payments

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EXSY's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EXSY's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EXSY's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of EXSY's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Italian market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Expert System's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?


CEO

Stefano Spaggiari 0

0yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. Stefano Spaggiari founded Expert System S.p.A. in 1989 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Spaggiari served as Managing Director of Expert System SpA. He aimed at developing advanced technol ...


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Buy€7,75005 Apr 19
Andrea Melegari
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Senior EVP of Defense
Shares5,000
Max Price€1.55

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Louis Andre

    Chief Executive Officer of Expert System Usa

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Giuseppe Strafforello

    Executive Vice President and CTO of Expert System USA

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Stefano Spaggiari

    Founder

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Christophe Aubry

    Chief Executive Officer of Expert System Enterprise

    • Tenure: 1.7yrs
  • Marco Varone

    Founder

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Andrea Melegari

    Senior EVP of Defense

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Marcello Pellacani

    VP of Strategic Initiatives & RPA Alliances

    • Tenure: 3.8yrs
  • Claudio Palmolungo

    Executive Vice President of Europe

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Daniel Mayer

    CMO & SVP for Products-Expert System Enterprise

    • Tenure: 1.7yrs
  • Francesca Petronio

    Corporate HR Director

    • Tenure: 0yrs

Board Members

  • Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli (71yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Stefano Spaggiari

    Founder

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Marco Varone

    Founder

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Andrea Melegari

    Senior EVP of Defense

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Paolo Lombardi

    Director

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Gabriella Franzini

    Director

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Marcello Pellacani

    VP of Strategic Initiatives & RPA Alliances

    • Tenure: 3.8yrs
  • Alessandro Augusto

    Chairman of the Board of Statutory Auditors

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Andrea Cuoghi

    Standing Auditor

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Stefano Pedrini

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs

Company Information

Expert System S.p.A.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Expert System S.p.A.
  • Ticker: EXSY
  • Exchange: BIT
  • Founded: 1989
  • Industry: Application Software
  • Sector: Software
  • Market Cap: €118.173m
  • Shares outstanding: 39.92m
  • Website: https://www.expertsystem.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Expert System S.p.A.
  • Via Virgilio, 56/Q
  • Modena
  • Modena
  • 41123
  • Italy

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
EXSYBIT (Borsa Italiana)YesCommon StockITEURFeb 2014
EXSP.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesCommon StockUSUSDFeb 2014
3K2DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURFeb 2014

Biography

Expert System S.p.A. develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on artificial intelligence algorithms to read and understand written language in Italy and internationally. The company o ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/10/21 21:28
End of Day Share Price2019/10/21 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.