Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that ‘Volatility is far from synonymous with risk. It’s only natural to consider a company’s balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Aquafil S.p.A. (BIT:ECNL) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can’t easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
What Is Aquafil’s Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2019 Aquafil had debt of €323.7m, up from €262.1m in one year. However, it does have €91.1m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €232.6m.
How Healthy Is Aquafil’s Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Aquafil had liabilities of €148.2m falling due within a year, and liabilities of €342.9m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €91.1m as well as receivables valued at €35.1m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €365.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company’s market capitalization of €330.4m, we think shareholders really should watch Aquafil’s debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Aquafil has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.4 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.6 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn’t want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Importantly, Aquafil’s EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 27% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Aquafil can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you’re focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don’t cut it. So it’s worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Aquafil saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
To be frank both Aquafil’s conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. Having said that, its ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT isn’t such a worry. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Aquafil has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it’s certainly not our cup of tea. Another positive for shareholders is that it pays dividends. So if you like receiving those dividend payments, check Aquafil’s dividend history, without delay!
At the end of the day, it’s often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It’s free.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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