Did You Manage To Avoid Intesa Sanpaolo’s (BIT:ISP) 28% Share Price Drop?

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The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn’t blame long term Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (BIT:ISP) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 28% over a half decade. Even worse, it’s down 20% in about a month, which isn’t fun at all. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

See our latest analysis for Intesa Sanpaolo

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Intesa Sanpaolo became profitable within the last five years. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it’s counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn’t really explain the share price drop. While it’s not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company’s history might help explain it.

The chart below shows how revenue and earnings have changed with time, (if you click on the chart you can see the actual values).

BIT:ISP Income Statement, June 5th 2019
BIT:ISP Income Statement, June 5th 2019

Intesa Sanpaolo is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Intesa Sanpaolo, it has a TSR of -1.8% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 2.6% in the twelve months, Intesa Sanpaolo shareholders did even worse, losing 18% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there’s a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.4% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Importantly, we haven’t analysed Intesa Sanpaolo’s dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you’re thinking of buying.

But note: Intesa Sanpaolo may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IT exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.