Piaggio & C. SpA (BIT:PIA) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Shareholders might have noticed that Piaggio & C. SpA (BIT:PIA) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.5% to €1.80 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €352m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at €0.19 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the six analysts covering Piaggio & C are now predicting revenues of €1.64b in 2026. If met, this would reflect an okay 5.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 71% to €0.18. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.69b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.19 in 2026. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for Piaggio & C

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of €2.41, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Piaggio & C's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Piaggio & C, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €4.10 and the most bearish at €1.60 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Piaggio & C's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.5% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.9% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Piaggio & C is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Piaggio & C analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Piaggio & C (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.