Stock Analysis

Granules India's (NSE:GRANULES) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

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NSEI:GRANULES
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The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. One great example is Granules India Limited (NSE:GRANULES) which saw its share price drive 180% higher over five years. On top of that, the share price is up 13% in about a quarter.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 4.6%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

Our analysis indicates that GRANULES is potentially undervalued!

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, Granules India managed to grow its earnings per share at 23% a year. That makes the EPS growth particularly close to the yearly share price growth of 23%. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NSEI:GRANULES Earnings Per Share Growth December 1st 2022

This free interactive report on Granules India's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Granules India, it has a TSR of 189% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Granules India shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 15% over the last year. That's including the dividend. However, that falls short of the 24% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. Before forming an opinion on Granules India you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Granules India is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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