Granules India (NSE:GRANULES) sheds 5.6% this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 14, 2022
NSEI:GRANULES
Source: Shutterstock

Granules India Limited (NSE:GRANULES) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 12% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been very strong. In three years the stock price has launched 163% higher: a great result. So the recent fall in the share price should be viewed in that context. The fundamental business performance will ultimately dictate whether the top is in, or if this is a stellar buying opportunity.

While this past week has detracted from the company's three-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

Check out our latest analysis for Granules India

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Granules India was able to grow its EPS at 32% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. We note that the 38% yearly (average) share price gain isn't too far from the EPS growth rate. Coincidence? Probably not. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Quite to the contrary, the share price has arguably reflected the EPS growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NSEI:GRANULES Earnings Per Share Growth April 14th 2022

It is of course excellent to see how Granules India has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Granules India's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Granules India, it has a TSR of 168% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Granules India shareholders are down 5.3% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 29%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 17%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. If you would like to research Granules India in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.

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