Is Reliance Industries (NSE:RELIANCE) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 13, 2021
NSEI:RELIANCE
Source: Shutterstock

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Reliance Industries Limited (NSE:RELIANCE) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View our latest analysis for Reliance Industries

How Much Debt Does Reliance Industries Carry?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Reliance Industries had ₹2.56t in debt in September 2021; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹2.20t, its net debt is less, at about ₹361.3b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NSEI:RELIANCE Debt to Equity History December 13th 2021

How Healthy Is Reliance Industries' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Reliance Industries had liabilities of ₹3.16t falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹2.68t due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹2.20t and ₹175.4b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹3.47t.

This deficit isn't so bad because Reliance Industries is worth a massive ₹16t, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Reliance Industries's net debt is only 0.39 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 34.7 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Also good is that Reliance Industries grew its EBIT at 19% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Reliance Industries can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Reliance Industries saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

Reliance Industries's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. Considering this range of data points, we think Reliance Industries is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Reliance Industries is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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