Earnings Beat: Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a good week for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE:HINDPETRO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest second-quarter results, and the shares gained 8.6% to ₹476. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at ₹1.0t, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 31%, coming in at ₹18.14 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 19 analysts covering Hindustan Petroleum, is for revenues of ₹4.15t in 2026. This implies a discernible 3.5% reduction in Hindustan Petroleum's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 49% to ₹97.80. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹4.00t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹65.31 in 2026. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very substantial lift in earnings per share in particular.

View our latest analysis for Hindustan Petroleum

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of ₹473, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hindustan Petroleum at ₹615 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹250. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.9% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Hindustan Petroleum's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Hindustan Petroleum's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hindustan Petroleum analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Hindustan Petroleum you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.