Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (NSE:IRFC) Stock Catapults 30% Though Its Price And Business Still Lag The Market

The Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (NSE:IRFC) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 30%. The last month tops off a massive increase of 181% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Indian Railway Finance's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.6x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 30x and even P/E's above 55x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

Indian Railway Finance hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to get any better. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Indian Railway Finance

Keen to find out how analysts think Indian Railway Finance's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like Indian Railway Finance's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 6.0%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 43% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the only analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 3.8% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 19% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we can see why Indian Railway Finance is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Final Word

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Indian Railway Finance's P/E close to the market median. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Indian Railway Finance's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Indian Railway Finance has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.